Research On The Impact Of Climate Change On Agricultural Economy In Guizhou Province

This study focuses on the impact of climate change.Human activities have changed the relative stability of climate,which has a profound impact on the natural ecosystem and human society.Guizhou Province is the only province in China without any plains or adequate agricultural resources.With rich agricultural climate resources and severe agrometeorological disasters,the unique climate conditions place constraints on agricultural production.Adaptation and mitigation measures are required to deal with agrometeorological disasters,especially freeze injuries.However,it is necessary to figure out what kind of impact climate change will have on the agricultural economy of Guizhou Province in the future in the first place.The answer to this question will provide a valuable reference for taking measures to develop the agricultural economy in Guizhou Province.The study first investigates the crop cultivation systems in the 34 weather stations in Guizhou Province according to their distribution,collecting soil data and estimated meteorological data in the counties,where the stations are located,to build a crop model database and simulate the impact of future climate change on crop yield in Guizhou Province by using the DNDC model;then,a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is constructed to simulate the impact of future climate change on the macroeconomy and agricultural sector of Guizhou Province,with the impact of climate change on crop yield as the constraint of agricultural production.Accordingly,this paper proposes a strategy to cope with climate change in Guizhou Province.The innovation of this study is mainly in two aspects: First,the research technique of crop models,coupled with a computable general equilibrium model,is developed by considering the meteorological characteristics of the specific region,and a computable general equilibrium model is constructed for the first time for the study of agricultural economic issues in Guizhou Province,which makes a contribution to the study of the agricultural economy in Guizhou Province in terms of methodology.Second,this study finds that future agricultural economic output in Guizhou Province is more affected by warming,and the external demand for rice,corn and tea changes little.These findings provide theoretical support for balancing the production relationship between food crops and cash crops in Guizhou Province in the context of climate change.The findings of the study of a crop model coupled with a computable general equilibrium model include the following.First,due to climate change,rice and tea yields will increase and corn yield will decrease in Guizhou Province from 2023 to 2030,but the investments received by these sectors will all rise;rural residents’ income obtained from these sectors will be raised,increasing their savings,which will accelerate the GDP growth in Guizhou Province.From 2031 to 2050,climate change will cause a decrease in rice and corn yields in Guizhou Province and an increase in tea yield;investments received by the three sectors will decline;rural residents’ income obtained from these sectors will decrease,lessening their savings,with fewer contribution to the GDP growth of Guizhou Province.Second,the level of foreign trade in rice,corn and tea in Guizhou Province is closely related to the level of local output.However,a portion of the economic gains from output and investment in the rice,corn and tea sectors in Guizhou Province are absorbed within the province,failing to increase sales to other provinces.Third,the climate change caused by the sharp rise in temperature will lead to Guizhou Province buying more rice and corn from other provinces,and thus Guizhou Province will be more dependent on grains from other places,making it more difficult for Guizhou Province to provide food for itself.Fourth,warming is conducive to avoiding cold temperatures such as freezing in Guizhou Province,and the climate change scenario of warming and moderate reduction of precipitation can better promote the agricultural economy of Guizhou Province compared with other climate change scenarios.Based on the findings,this study makes some policy recommendations for the development of the agricultural economy in Guizhou Province by taking measures to cope with climate change as follows:first,promote the transformation of agricultural production in Guizhou Province to a climate adaptation model;second,enhance the construction of agricultural water conservancy facilities in Guizhou Province;third,improve the agrometeorological disaster prevention and relief system;fourth,strengthen the construction of ecological system engineering;fifth,balance the relationship between food crop and cash crop production in Guizhou Province.