Impacts Of Climate Change On Food Security And Its Adaptation Solutions In Togo,Sub-Saharan Africa

The world population is growing unexpectedly,especially in Sub-Saharan Africa;hence more people must be fed with scarce and limited resources.The challenge is real in a world where climate change and its variability jeopardize the efforts to increase agricultural output,which is paramount in the fight against food insecurity.This study aims to assess the impact of climate change and its variability on food security in Sub-Saharan African countries with a particular focus on Togo,where the effects of climate change on food production and the role of climate-smart agriculture in combating food insecurity were assessed.As one of the world’s poorest sub-regions,Sub-Saharan Africa lags in new agricultural technology,investments,and policies to boost agricultural production and related activities undoubtedly,climate change effects are more alarming in the sub-region.In a nutshell,the research attempted to find answers to the questions on how recent climatic variability and change influenced Togolese agricultural yield and Sub-Saharan Africa countries‘food security and if climate-smart agriculture practices are the best adaptation mechanisms to climate change and solutions to fight against food insecurity in Togo.To achieve our objectives,we used secondary panel data from 25 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1985 to 2018,time series data from 3 Togolese administrative regions from 1990 to2019,and data from the Harmonized Survey on Household Living Conditions 2018-2019（EHCVM 2018/19）.These data were retrieved from FAO and the World Bank websites,the Togolese Meteorological,and the Agricultural statistics and data centers.After the data collection process,we used methodologies such as Autoregressive Distributed Lag（ARDL）technique with the Pooled Mean Group（PMG）estimator,panel fully modified ordinary least squares（FMOLS）,dynamic ordinary least squares（DOLS）regression,Fisher‘s meteorological regression and Chebyshev polynomial function,multinomial endogenous switching regression（MESR）and a multinomial endogenous treatment effect（METE）approach.The empirical outcome from the impact of climate change and variability on food security revealed that rainfall significantly positively affected food availability,accessibility,and utilization in the long run.In contrast,the temperature was harmful to food availability and accessibility and did not impact food utilization.Lastly,CO₂ emission positively impacted food availability and accessibility but did not affect food utilization.The study went a step further by integrating additional variables（cereal production,gross domestic product,and inflation rate）to ensure the robustness of the preceding PMG results.The additional variables significantly impacted food availability,accessibility,and utilization.Similarly,the FMOLS and DOLS regression results confirmed the PMG‘s findings.Furthermore,the Granger causality test was conducted to determine the causal link among the variables.A short-run causal relationship was found between food availability and CO₂ emission.Food accessibility exhibited a causal association with temperature.CO₂ emission was linked to rainfall.Lastly,a bidirectional causal link was found between rainfall and temperature.The study also explored the effect of meteorological factors such as rainfall,temperature,sunshine,wind speed,and relative humidity on maize（Zea mays L.）and sorghum（Sorghum bicolor L.）yields at different growth stages in Togo‘s Plateau,Central,and Savannah regions because these two crops are the most produced and consumed by Togolese.Our findings revealed rainfall’s beneficial and detrimental effects on maize and sorghum yield across stages and regions.The same trend was observed for temperature influence,which was more significant across all growth stages of maize and sorghum in the Savannah and Plateau region,respectively.The correlation between sunshine and maize yield was more accentuated in the Central and Savannah regions,while the negative effect of sunshine on sorghum yield was in all the growth stages in the Central region.Furthermore,the wind speed was also beneficial and detrimental to maize and sorghum yields,especially during all growth stages in the three studied areas,although it was more notable for sorghum in Plateau and Savannah regions.Similarly,the study revealed that omitting the weather variables such as wind speed and relative humidity might under-predict or over-predict weather impacts on crop yields.Lastly,we conducted empirical research to identify the factors influencing the adoption decisions of climate-smart agriculture practices（CSAPs）and their impact on household food security among smallholder farmers in Togo.The results showed that factors such as participation in off-farm activities,education level,farm size,agro-ecological zone,land ownership,time spent from home to farm,and access to credit affect farmers’adoption of CSAPs.Households headed by men are less likely to adopt 4 CSAPs,meaning female-headed households adopt more CSAPs than male-headed households.Similarly,agricultural associations and cooperatives,technology promotion by local governments,etc.have important influences on adopting CSAPs.Further results revealed that CSAP adoption is highly effective in enhancing household food security.The MESR showed that households’food consumption score increases proportionally to the number of CSAPs adopted.Similarly,adopting more CSAPs reduces the food insecurity experience scales.On the other hand,the METE model showed an increase in acceptable food consumption when the household adopted up to 4 CSAPs.Likewise,it sharply decreased severe food insecurity.Further results from the propensity score matching technique show that the mono-cropping system,using improved varieties of seeds,plant protection products,and inorganic fertilizer,improved adopters’food consumption score while reducing their food insecurity.Consequently,SSA countries’governments should fight collectively against the impact of climate change on food security by providing some funding to deal with food production challenges caused by these changes at the country level.Additionally,there is a need for real-time agricultural meteorological information to help farmers plan crop production more efficiently and increase crop yield.The study also recommends that the government body in charge of agriculture should offer more subsidies on inputs such as improved varieties of seeds,plant protection products,and fertilizer,which have proved crucial for yield improvement and food security.Similarly,intensifying access to extension agents could be useful for information about innovative technologies and best yield-prone CSAPs.Increasing agricultural credit input to farmers and strengthening CASP technology training for rural women are more conducive to promoting the adoption of CASP technology,strengthening agriculture adaptation to climate change,and improving food security in Togo and Sub-Saharan Africa.Through the explicit recognition of the impact of climate change on agriculture,food security,and adaptations solutions,this research offers a significant learning opportunity for policymakers,practitioners,government,non-governmental organizations,and development partners to comprehend how multi-scalar interventions could put into action to help farmers adapt to climate change which is a crucial step in achieving food security at a household,national and sub-regional levels.