| Cities are core of global climate change mitigation and the implementation of low-carbon development strategies.They are home to more than half of the world population and account for three-quarters of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.The study analyzes the concept,connotation,principles and characteristics of carbon neutralization from two aspects of carbon neutralization process and results,and clarifies the basic elements of regional carbon neutralization theory.Taking Fuzhou,one of the national central cities,as the research object,the paper analyzes the current situation of carbon sources and sinks in Fuzhou and the realistic demand for carbon neutrality,and constructs a scenario model of LEAP＿FZ(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System-Fuzhou)suitable for Fuzhou,and clarifies the key tasks,carbon emission reduction paths and related measures to achieve carbon neutralization in Fuzhou.According to the actual needs of the government and the characteristics of regional development,the adaptation to climate change will be incorporated into the action plan system,and the template of carbon neutral action plan for municipal economies will be constructed.The main research contents include the following aspects:1)From the two levels of carbon neutralization process and results,this paper clarifies the basic concept,connotation,principles,characteristics and practice content of regional carbon neutralization,and explores the theoretical basis of carbon neutralization.From the perspective of regional ecosystem subsystems(economic system,social system,natural ecosystem),the formulation of regional carbon neutrality planning and action plan is put forward.2)The natural ecosystem of Fuzhou City has unique advantages in carbon sequestration,especially the forest ecosystem with a forest coverage rate of 58.06%and the marine ecosystem which has almost the same area as the land have great potential for carbon sequestration.The annual average carbon sink of forest ecosystem in Fuzhou is660,600 tons,and the carbon sink supply capacity will reach 798,84-9,092,9 million tons in 2050.The forest carbon density in Fuzhou has continued to increase,from 122.61t/hm~2in 2000 to 128.31t/hm~2 in 2010.Excluding the impact of ecosystem soil carbon pool on the increase in carbon density,the forest carbon density in Fuzhou was 40.47-44.63t/hm~2,far below the world average level of 86 t/hm~2,indicating that there is still a large space for Fuzhou to improve forest quality and expand carbon sequestration potential.The carbon sink potential of the sea area of Fuzhou is 205,000 t/a-46.900,000 t/a,and the carbon sink capacity of the tidal flat ecosystem is 10,000 t/a-101,100 t/a.To sum up,the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystem of Fuzhou in 2050 is 8.2034 million tons to9.663 million tons,which can provide a strong carbon sequestration guarantee for carbon neutrality in Fuzhou.3)The social and economic system of Fuzhou has a certain potential for emission reduction.The main sources of carbon emissions in Fuzhou are coal and electricity consumption,accounting for more than 95%of the total carbon emissions.Industry is the primary sector of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Fuzhou.From 2010 to2014,the total carbon emissions in Fuzhou increased rapidly,from 38.42 million tons in2010 to 47.03 million tons in 2014.The total carbon emissions in 2015 decreased to41.25 million tons,and in 2016 decreased to 34.72 million tons.From 2010 to 2016,Fuzhou’s carbon emission intensity continued to decline,from 1.26-0.56 t/10000 yuan(calculated at 2015 prices).It is lower than similar cities in China and has a good foundation for low-carbon development.4)Based on the framework of LEAP model,the LEAP-FZ sub-sector calculation model for Fuzhou is constructed to predict the peak carbon emissions in Fuzhou,with the main objective of reducing industrial energy consumption.Under the baseline scenario(SCE-1),total carbon emissions will peak 2038,with a peak value of 55.86 million t/a,which is later than the country’s commitment to the world.The proportion of carbon emissions in different sectors shows that the industrial sector has the largest carbon emissions,but it shows a decreasing trend year by year,from 72.39%to 58.38%,while the proportion of carbon emissions in the service industry,residential life and transportation sectors is gradually increasing.The sectors that can clearly reach the peak are the steel sector in the industrial sector and the carbon emissions of thermal power generation.In the sub-indicators,per capita carbon emissions,carbon intensity and unit energy consumption can reach the peak in advance.Fuzhou only takes the benchmark scenario as the development model,which cannot meet the national development needs of the region.5)The baseline(SCE-1)scenario cannot meet the actual needs of carbon neutrality in Fuzhou,so the energy saving scenario(SCE-2),the clean energy saving scenario(SCE-3)and the fast peak scenario(SCE-4)are set up for simulation analysis.Under the SCE-2 scenario,the total carbon emissions will peak I in 2030,with a peak value of48.11 million t/a.Under the SCE-3 scenario,the total carbon emissions will reach a peak in 2025,with a peak value of 45.07 million t/a.Under the SCE-4 scenario,total carbon emissions will peak in 2023,with a peak value of 42.31 million t/a.The industrial sector is the largest sector of carbon emissions,through the upgrading of industrial structure,industrial technological transformation and energy efficiency improvement,the proportion has been decreasing year by year.In addition to carbon dioxide emissions from energy activities,non-carbon dioxide emissions from energy activities in Fuzhou,as well as carbon dioxide,methane and nitrous oxide emissions from waste disposal,have the same trend as carbon dioxide emissions.6)Based on the carbon emission characteristics of Fuzhou predicted by LEAP-FZ model,combined with the development goals and carbon sink potential of Fuzhou,it is suggested that Fuzhou should adopt the clean development scenario to construct a implementation plan of carbon neutrality.The total carbon emissions of Fuzhou will reach the peak in 2025,and the greenhouse gas emissions of the whole city will be lower than the level of 2015 in 2050,which will be 36-40%lower than the peak year(2025).The goal of carbon neutrality is mainly achieved by coordinating energy consumption,economic growth and industrial structure optimization.Among them,the energy structure is dominated by the consumption of low-emission energy,the economic growth rate is growing at an average rate of 4-5%annually,and the three industries of contribution to economic growth from large to small is as follows:the third industry,the second industry,the first industrial.Specifically,the carbon neutralization plan is formulated from four aspects:overall control and comprehensive management;in the aspect of economic system,adjusting industrial structure to adapt to the development of low-carbon metropolis;in the aspect of social system,overall coordinating to reduce carbon emissions;in the aspect of natural ecosystem,improving carbon storage and carbon absorption capacity.7)Adaptation to climate change is an important work for Fuzhou to implement carbon neutrality strategy.Therefore,one of the main tasks for Fuzhou to adapt to climate change is to improve the quality of mountain forest ecosystems,so as to cope with the impact of extreme climate(drought,fire,mudslides and landslide,etc.)brought about by climate warming,and at the same time to improve the carbon sink capacity of regional forest ecosystems.Fuzhou has a large area of marine resources,and the development and utilization of marine carbon sinks and the protection of coastal economies have become one of the important aspects of its adaptation to climate change.Fuzhou is surrounded by mountains on three sides and faces the sea on one side.The potential risks to residents and ecosystems caused by rising temperatures are immeasurable in Fuzhou.Therefore,it is necessary to start with regional territorial and spatial planning,and strengthen the abilities to response to special diseases and enhance the capacity of regional emergency response systems. |
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