| Brucellosis is an acute and chronic zoonotic infectious disease caused by a variety of brucellosis,which brings infinite pain to human health and huge economic losses to the development of animal husbandry.In China,human brucellosis has always been a significant public health problem,especially in developed livestock husbandry of pastoral areas of northern provinces.In these areas,it is not clear how the transmission dynamics of brucellosis outbreaks are affected by the control measures such as disinfection,human publicity and education,sheep immunization and detection,and the implementation time,breeding characteristics such as periodic birth,shearing,and temperature changes.Epidemic dynamic modeling has been playing a vital role in describing the epidemic spread,revealing the transmission characteristics,and predicting the epidemiological trend of infectious disease.Therefore,considering the regional breeding characteristics,the prevention and control characteristics,people’s changing behavioral awareness,and the impact of climate change on the transmission of brucellosis,it is of great significance to utilize the mechanism-driven dynamic model combining with the actual reported incidence data to explore the transmission mechanism and epidemic characteristics of brucellosis in different regions of China,and to effectively control it,and to predict its development trend.The results can provide some theoretical guidance and data support for the formulation of prevention and control measures of brucellosis.The main research content of this paper can be divided into four parts:（1）The discrete-time human-sheep coupling dynamic model is constructed by the backward Euler method.Firstly,the threshold dynamic parameterR0 of the model is given,and the global dynamic characteristics of the equilibrium points are analyzed.Secondly,the reported human brucellosis cases from 2013 to 2020 of Jilin province is fitted by the discrete model,and the basic reproduction number in Jilin Province is estimatedR0（28）0.871.The results demonstrates that human brucellosis in Jilin Province will not disappear in a short time,and improving the frequency of disinfection,the effect of publicity and education,and the elimination rate can shorten the epidemic time and final scale of human brucellosis,and achieve the national control target as soon as possible.（2）Aiming at high levels of perceived risk about brucellosis before 2009 were largely suspected in Jilin province,as well as its effect in stemming the transmission of brucellosis.We will devise two epidemic models（whether they include information-induced parameters）to investigate the effects of people’s changing behavioral awareness on the transmission of brucellosis.Firstly,the global dynamics of the models are thoroughly analyzed.Secondly,the models are utilized to fit the data of newly infected brucellosis cases in Jilin province of2002-2020.The basic reproduction numbers are calculated asR0（28）1.767 before 2009 and R0（28）0.921 after 2009.The research illustrates that:1.If the government delayed the implementation of pilot work in Jilin province for one year,the peak number of newly infected brucellosis cases would be increased by 50%and exceed 5000.2.If the government implemented the pilot work in Jilin province one year in advance,the peak number of newly infected brucellosis cases would be reduced by 40%.3.Increasing the values of information-induced voluntary vaccination rate is less effective than increasing the values of information-induced voluntary detection rate and voluntary protection rate.（3）To excavate the key factors of human brucellosis periodic outbreaks in Inner Mongolia autonomous region,a brucellosis disaster area of China,we propose a dynamic model with significant periodic factors to characterize the epidemiological transmission of brucellosis combining with the breeding features and the prevention and control measures.Firstly,the basic reproduction number is evaluated by utilizing the evolution operator method,and the threshold dynamics of the model is thoroughly analyzed.Secondly,the model is adopted to fit the monthly data of human brucellosis cases from 2015-2020.The basic reproduction number is calculated asR0（28）1.3145.Our results show that:1.Periodical sheep birth and sheep shearing play a significant role in inducing periodical outbreak of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia.2.Improving the vaccination rate,testing rate and disinfection rate will help to contain the spread of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia.（4）Considering that the survival time of brucella is sensitive to periodic changes in temperature,and there is a latency lag process in sheep from brucella infection to the illness,we construct a periodic dynamic model with latency delay coupled with climate elements.Theoretically,the global dynamics of periodic solutions of the model are proved by employing the theory of monotone dynamical systems.In the application,the monthly human brucellosis case and average temperature data of Xinjiang region from 2015 to 2020 are fitted,and the basic reproduction number of brucellosis transmission in Xinjiang region is evaluated asR0（28）0.6691.The results indicate that:1.Periodic changes in temperature and periodic shearing are the key factors leading to the periodic outbreaks of human brucellosis in Xinjiang.2.Improving the frequency of environmental disinfection can quickly eliminate the epidemic of brucellosis in Xinjiang.3.When the immunization ratek（28）0 or the detection rateg（28）0,the basic reproduction number of brucellosis transmission in Xinjiang is still less than 1,which means that brucellosis will not break out in Xinjiang.With the reduction of brucellosis cases,non-immunization measures can be taken when unnecessary. |
