| Along with the advance of pilot free trade zones and the establishment of a new system for an open economy,the negative list system for foreign investment access is being implemented in both pilot trade zones and nationwide.Since the implementation of the pilot negative list for foreign investment access in 2013,and especially since it was promoted and replicated nationwide in 2017,restrictions on the business scope and shareholding ratio of foreign investment access in the banking sector have been successively removed,marking a new step in the opening up of China's banking sector.But at the same time,by the subprime crisis within the scope of international liquidity easing after the environmental impact,some domestic commercial Banks profit too much lead to a significant accumulation,risk and financial deleveraging,backward production capacity in recent years adjustment policies,such as commercial bank's risk exposure increases,the banking risk situation is quite serious in our country.International experience and relevant studies show that the rapid entry of foreign capital into the banking industry and the excessive opening of the financial sector may lead to the collapse of financial institutions,impact on the banking regulatory system,weaken macro-control policies,magnify the volatility of international capital liquidity and other negative effects,thus impacting the risk of a country's banking industry.So,does the negative list system of foreign investment exacerbate the risks of the banking industry by opening the banking industry wider?What kind of impact does it have on the banking risks through what channels?Under what conditions can the foreign negative list system effectively reduce the individual risks of banks?How to adjust the negative list of foreign investment,the supporting security review system of foreign investment and the risk early warning mechanism of banks to realize the coordinated development of the opening up of the banking industry and the prevention and control of financial risks?The research of this paper answers the above questions.Based on the normative analysis of law and economics,this paper studies the efficiency and effectiveness of the negative list system for foreign investment access by using the two efficiency standards of Pareto standard and "Caldo-Hicks" standard.Based on the empirical analysis of law and economics,by constructing the macro risk impact model,the dual difference model,the composite control model,the threshold regression model of the impact of individual risks of banks,comprehensively using the policy evaluation methods such as DID,SCM,PSM and the threshold regression estimation method,this paper empirically tests the impact of foreign negative list system on banking risks from three aspects: macro risk impact,channel difference of risk impact and threshold effect of individual bank risks.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,this paper briefly Outlines the relationship between the negative list system for foreign investment and the risks of the banking industry,starting from the implementation of the negative list system for foreign investment access at home and abroad and the changes in the risks of China's banking industry before and after the implementation of the negative list.The conclusions are as follows:First,China's negative list of foreign investment restrictions is still relatively traditional,and there are still many obstacles in the supervision of financial security review and other matters during and after the process.The supporting legal and regulatory system has not been improved,and there is no effective systematic risk warning mechanism for banks,and the capital account opening is not compatible enough.Relevant problems have increased the negative pressure of the foreign negative list system on the risks of China's banking industry.Second,after the implementation of the negative list system for foreign investment,the risk pressure of China's banking industry is increasing continuously.At the same time,for the banking industry in the region with a higher degree of opening to the outside world and the commercial banks with foreign shares,the risk situation of the banking industry or individual banks has not significantly deteriorated after the implementation of the negative list system,indicating that the influence mechanism of the negative list system of foreign capital on the banking risks remains to be further explored.Secondly,the paper sorts out the basic theory and mechanism of the influence of foreign negative list system on banking risks.On the one hand,the use of legal theory analysis of the negative list system of legal position and legal functions and legal relationship,using economics efficiency standards and the system of admittance of foreign capital supply and demand analysis method to the negative list and the influence on the economic analysis,using the bank's risk and its prevention and control of related theoretical analysis of the cause of the bank's risk and how to control and prevention.On the other hand,on the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper systematically sorts out the specific influence mechanism of foreign negative list system on banking risks from different perspectives.At the macro level,a macro impact model of foreign negative list system on banking risks is constructed.The model shows that by slowing down the fluctuation of macroeconomic cycle and credit cycle and reducing the accumulation of risks in commercial banks,the implementation of the foreign negative list system reduces the risks in the banking industry.In terms of specific influence channels,the implementation of the negative list system for foreign investment can reduce industry risks through the increase of foreign capital inflow,the improvement of supervision during and after the event,the reduction of government intervention and the promotion of the level of rule of law.It may also increase the risks of the banking industry through the risk impact of foreign capital inflow and the lack of supervision during and after the event.In terms of the threshold effect of individual bank risk,the impact of foreign negative list system(foreign bank entry)on bank risk varies with the difference of individual bank's asset scale,foreign shareholding ratio and profitability.Thirdly,based on multiple levels of research data and using a variety of econometric methods,this paper conducts an empirical test on the actual effect of the negative list system for foreign investment access on banking risks.First,in terms of macro impact,53 countries in the world from 1996 to 2017 were taken as the research objects.22 countries implementing the negative list were regarded as the treatment group and the countries not implementing the negative list as the control group.DID and a variety of robust tests were used to find that the negative list system significantly reduced the risk level of the banking industry.Moreover,for those countries with lower capital account openness(capital account openness index< 0.85)and higher rule of law(rule of law index > 11.94),the reduction effect is more pronounced.Secondly,in terms of influence channels,based on the panel data of 27 provincial-level regions in Chinese mainland from 2006 to 2016,a virtual "Synthetic Shanghai" which is not affected by the negative list system is constructed by using the weighted average of the samples of provincial-level regions that have not implemented the negative list system by using the composite control method(SCM).Taking the implementation of the negative list system for foreign investment in Shanghai Free Trade Zone as the policy impact,this paper compares the gap of banking risks between real Shanghai and "synthetic Shanghai",so as to investigate the net effect of the negative list system for foreign investment on the banking risks in Shanghai.It is found that the negative list system of foreign investment significantly reduces the credit risk and liquidity risk of the banking industry in Shanghai,and mainly reduces the risk of the banking industry in Shanghai through two channels: stimulating the inflow of foreign capital and reducing the government intervention.The effect of improving the risk of the banking industry through improving the level of the rule of law is not obvious.Thirdly,in terms of the risk threshold effect of individual banks,based on the panel data of 31 foreign-shared commercial banks in China from 2009 to 2018,the analysis of panel threshold estimation and interaction term estimation shows that when the bank's asset size,foreign shareholding ratio and profitability reach a relatively high level,That is to say,when the total assets ? 1,149.8 billion yuan,foreign ownership ratio ?26.76%,the return rate of total assets ?1.03%,the entry of foreign banks will have a significant inhibiting effect on the individual risks of banks,otherwise,the opposite is true.Moreover,the robustness test of the impact of foreign bank entry on different types of risks of banks also draws similar conclusions.Finally,based on the main research conclusions,this article from the continuous optimization of admittance of foreign capital banking negative list,form a complete set of system to refine the list of banking negative laws and regulations,establish and perfect the system of security review of foreign investment,to build systematic multi-level bank risk early warning mechanism,strengthen the system construction,supervision and management of foreign-funded financial institutions risks.We open capital account under the condition of financial risk prevention legal system construction and so on six aspects put forward policy Suggestions,in order to effectively cope with dissolve the admittance of foreign capital banking risk impact negative listing system may,maintaining the financial and economic system stability of our country.The innovation or marginal contribution of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects:Firstly,from the perspective of the negative list system for foreign investment access,we consider the prevention and resolution of banking risks.Research on banking risks under the condition of opening up mainly focuses on the impact of capital flow or financial service industry opening itself.However,there is little literature on the impact of the comprehensive opening policy reform of foreign capital access negative list system on banking risks.Therefore,this paper attempts to break through the limitations of existing research from the perspective of economic theory,econometrics analysis tools,and the research ideas and framework of law and economics to theoretically reason and empirically test the influence mechanism and actual effect of the negative list system for foreign investment access on banking risks.Suggestions were put forward to improve the negative list system for foreign investment and supporting laws and regulations,as well as to prevent and defuse banking risks.The research perspectives and ideas were innovated and expanded.Secondly,this paper expands the influence mechanism of foreign negative list system on banking risks.Comprehensive utilization of the paper under the condition of open economy model framework of international capital flows and macro economic fluctuations,foreign negative list under different channel system of banking risk mechanism difference under different Angle of view,expand the influence of foreign capital to enter the threshold effect mechanism of banking risk model and mechanism analysis,such as admittance of foreign capital from different dimensions system combed the negative list system impact on banking risk mechanism,made up for mechanism lacks the shortage of the existing research in this field theory.The conclusion is that the implementation of foreign negative list is beneficial to the reduction of risks in the banking industry by slowing down the fluctuation of macroeconomic cycle and credit cycle and reducing the accumulation of risks in commercial banks.The implementation of the negative list system for foreign investment can reduce industry risks through the increase of foreign capital inflow,the improvement of supervision during and after the event,the reduction of government intervention and the promotion of the level of rule of law.It may also increase the risks of the banking industry through the risk impact of foreign capital inflow and the lack of supervision during and after the event.Only when the bank's individual asset scale,foreign ownership ratio and profitability reach a high level,the implementation of foreign negative list system(foreign bank entry)will be conducive to the reduction of bank risks.Thirdly,based on multi-level data,this paper comprehensively uses policy evaluation methods such as DID,SCM,PSM and panel threshold regression method to conduct empirical research,and quantitatively investigates the actual impact of the negative list system for foreign investment access on banking risks.Conclusion shows that the relative to not implement negative listing system of foreign countries,foreign negative listing system is significantly reduce the risk of implementation of the banking industry,but also for the lower level of capital account liberalization(open capital account index < 0.85),high(> 11.94)of the rule of law index under the rule of law,to reduce the effect is more obvious;The negative list system of foreign investment has effectively reduced the credit risk and liquidity risk of the banking industry in Shanghai.The negative list system of foreign investment mainly reduces the risks of the banking industry in Shanghai through two channels: stimulating the inflow of foreign capital and reducing government intervention.The effect of improving the risks of the banking industry by improving the level of the rule of law is not obvious.Only when the bank's asset scale,foreign ownership ratio and profitability reach a relatively high level,that is,the total assets ? 1,149.8 billion yuan,foreign ownership ratio ?26.76%,the return rate on total assets ? 1.03%,the entry of foreign banks will have a significant inhibiting effect on the individual risks of banks,otherwise,the opposite is true. |
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