A Study On The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Corporate Investment

The arrival of the fourth technological revolution in the 21 st century has led to an increasingly complex and dynamic world competition.With the constant growth of trade conservatism and local nationalism,the uncertainty of the world economy is increasing.In the face of external external shocks,China's economic policies need to be continuously adjusted in conjunction with internal and external environmental changes and strategic development needs,which brings about economic policy uncertainty.Uncertainty of economic policies not only has an important impact on the political system and macroeconomic operations,but also has an important impact on corporate behavior.For example,in the 2014 China Business Report,57% of local companies and 66% of outside companies expressed concern that “the central government has different policies,government regulations are becoming more stringent and macroeconomic adjustments are becoming more frequent”,and this situation is closer,which shows an upward trend for these years.The impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate behavior is mainly reflected in investment behavior.Previous studies have studied the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior from the perspective of risk hedging,real option and investment irreversibility,financial friction and financing constraints.Different from previous studies,this paper firstly uses the theory of information network and analysis method,using information asymmetry theory and principal-agent theory,taking economic policy uncertainty as an exogenous shock variable,and taking capital market as a specific research scenario to capital market participants.For the research object,the listed company is the core of the research,and a hierarchical information network framework is constructed.What is different from previous research is that this paper focuses on the shapers of enterprise's information system enhancers and governance in the context of the destruction of the information environment and the triple constraints(investment opportunity constraints,investment size constraints and investment efficiency constraints).(directors,institutional investors and analysts)the collection,acquisition and analysis,exchange and diffusion of existing and future information,that is,the information asymmetry caused by the richness of their own information on economic policy uncertainty and the intensification of agency conflicts Can it play a corresponding role in mitigation and governance,so as to realize the transformation of enterprises from passive response to active confrontation of economic policy uncertainty.Therefore,on the whole,unlike previous studies,this paper aims to study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior based on the information network perspective,and then to study the internal(director network,institutional investor network)and external(Analyst Earnings Forecast)The improvement and governance of important information linkers and shapers to enable companies to better cope with the negative impacts of external economic policy uncertainty and improve corporate performance and value creation.The main research contents of this paper mainly include four parts and seven chapters.The first part is the introduction,theoretical basis and literature review.It mainly includes the first and second chapters.This part mainly explains and analyzes the research background,purpose,significance,method,technical route,innovation point and framework.The theoretical basis is mainly to review,introduce and analyze social network theory,information asymmetry theory and principal-agent theory.The literature review mainly summarizes and summarizes the relevant research on the investment behavior of enterprises in the past few years,and provides literature support for the subsequent research.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of information network,this paper systematically analyses and explains the mechanism and concrete manifestation of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise investment behavior,and pays more attention to investment efficiency or scale than previous studies.This paper takes investment opportunity,investment scale and investment efficiency as the specific elements of investment behavior,systematically carries out research,and makes a detailed analysis and study of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on investment opportunity,investment scale and investment efficiency,and compares their differences,so as to provide more practicability for enriching research in related fields.(2)From the perspective of information supply and governance,this paper studies the antagonistic effects of directors,institutional investors and analysts on mitigating economic policy uncertainty.In contrast to previous studies,which often emphasized the passivity of enterprises' investment behavior choice under the background of economic policy uncertainty,that is to say,when the uncertainty of economic policy increases,how to adjust investment behavior and its economic consequences under the passive situation for risk aversion.We have not noticed and observed the initiative and antagonism of the important participants(directors,executives and institutional investors)and influencers(analysts)in corporate decision-making.Therefore,under the background of uncertainties in economic policy,this paper emphasizes that(directors,institutional investors)and influencers(analysts)can play a corresponding role through information supply,thus alleviating the information fluctuation and ambiguity caused by uncertainties in economic policy,and thus promoting enterprises to actively adapt to economic policy.The impact of certainty is not passive acceptance and adjustment.(3)Using social network theory and analysis method,we can effectively construct and measure the expanding directors' information network system(including not only directors-directors,directors-senior management,directors and supervisors,but also directors' alumni network and political affiliation network)and institutional investors' information network(open foundation).Golden Heavy Stock Holdings as a link)system provides strong evidence for investigating and verifying whether the private information of directors and institutional investors through information exchange and information diffusion can effectively alleviate the information asymmetry,information ambiguity and agency conflict caused by economic policy uncertainty.At the same time,the analyst is regarded as an important influencer of enterprise information network,and the number of earnings forecast reports issued by analysts is used as an alternative variable of information supply characteristics and governance,which effectively verifies the analyst's "governance" hypothesis and "pressure" hypothesis,so as to further clarify analysts could alleviate negative effects of economic policy uncertainty.