Research On Model Of Housing Reverse Mortgage Market Operation Synergism

In the context of aging population,how to provide for the massive aged people is an important issue related to social stability and economic development.Housing reverse mortgage is a kind of innovative commercial insurance that combines housing and annuity.It can not only increase the income of the old and improves the olds' ability of self-protection,but also promote the development of finance,real estate and other related industries.Therefore,it can generate sound social and economic benefits.However,the operation process of housing reverse mortgage is rather complex and the operation risk is high.Thus,an embarrassing situation,insufficient of supply and demand,appears during the development of housing reverse mortgage.To solve the problems,this paper studies the supply-demand relation and the operation process of housing reverse mortgage from the whole market perspective,by using system theory,game theory,optimization theory,decision-making theory,economics,and finance and management theory comprehensivly.Then,this paper also proposes several policies and recommandations that promote synergistic operation of housing reverse mortgage.The main work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,this paper introduces the main concepts,characteristics and operation process of housing reverse mortgage.It also analyses the interests and behavior characteristics of the main participants of the market.According to the analysis,this paper builds a game model.By using evolutionary game theory and numerical simulation method,it researches on the interactive features of participants' behaviors,the evolutionary path,and evolutionary equilibrium and reveals the law and mechanism of housing reverse mortgage market.The results show that the market has two equilibrium(apply,engage)and(not apply,not engage)when the cost income ratio of insurance company is between 0 and 1 and the utility ratio of the old is larger than 1;the initial acceptance of the old or the insurance company toward housing reverse mortgage exceeding certain level is the necessary condition that makes the market evolve to(apply,engage)equilibrium.The probability of market evolving to(apply,engage)has a close relation with the structure and parameters of the payoff matrix.Secondly,this paper summaries the exisiting literature on housing reverse mortgage market and extracts 16 restriction factors from 4 aspects,supply side,demand side,housing reverse mortgage product and system environment respectively.By using ISM model,this paper analyses the hierarchical relationship among the restriction factors and explores the direct restrictions factors,the indirect restriction factors and the fundamental restriction factors of housing reverse mortgage market.By using Dematel model,this paper researches the constraints strength of each restriction factors,which increases the reliability of conclusion.The results show the fundamental restriction of housing reverse mortgage mainly lies in the system environment.Based on the analysis mentioned above,this paper constructs the synergism operation system of housing reverse mortgage market.Fourthly,by using the theory of information asymmetry,this paper analyses the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard in the housing reverse mortgage market and explains the necessity that government builds protection mechanism to the housing reverse mortgage market participants.Considering the psychological and physiological characteristics of the olds and their weak position in housing reverse process,this paper establishes the public education mechanism,supervision mechanism and punishment mechanism during the whole process of purchase.To verify the effectiveness of the three mechanisms,this paper also builds a simulation model by system dynamics method.The results show that the three mechanisms can improve the purchase intention of the old effectively.In addition,education mechanism is more effective than the other two mechanisms.Finally,considering the differences in social and economic development,this paper selects 30 indexes from demographic factors,economic factors,financial market factors,real estate market factors and legal factors 5 dimensions to construct the housing reverse mortgage market operation environment evaluation indicator system.According to the purpose of evaluation and the feather of the evaluation indicator system,this paper proposes a kind of mixed TOPSIS method which is improved by entopy weights and intuitionistic fuzzy number.Collecting the social and economic data of China's 31 provinces in 2015,this paper calculates the comprehensive evaluation values of the operation environment of the housing reverse mortgage market in each region.The results show the operation environment of housing reverse mortgage market in each region is very different.Overall,the east part is more suitable to operate reverse mortgage,while the west part is not and there is a positive agglomeration effects of housing reverse mortgage market operation environment in China.Based on the analysis,this paper puts forward the reccomendations to promote synergistic operation of housing reverse mortgage market for each region.To sum up,through the 5 models presented above,this paper has studied the evolution law of housing reverse mortgage market systematically,analysed the foundamental factors that restrict the development of housing reverse mortgage market in China and researches the subsidy measures,protection measures and synergism strategies of housing reverse mortgage market.The conclusions we got have great significance to promote the market synergistic operation.