Research On Statistical Measurement Of China's High Quality Economic Development

The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that “China's economy has changed from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development”.This is an important judgment made by the Communist Party of China on the economic development from the overall strategic perspective,and points out the specific direction for China's economic development.Promoting the high-quality development of China's economy is the fundamental requirement to adapt to the changes of China's major social contradictions,and is the objective need to realize the sustainable and stable development of China's economy and society,and is also the necessary way to enhance China's international competitiveness.At the present stage,only by carrying out the concept of high-quality economic development throughout the economic and social development,can we steadily promote the process of high-quality economic development.However,what is the internal mechanism of China's high-quality economic development? What is the current situation of high-quality economic development in China's regions and provinces? What are the characteristics of space-time evolution on China's regions and provinces? What factors affect the high-quality development of China's economy? The research on the measurement of these problems will help to clarify the basic context of China's high-quality economic development,and clarify the current situations and problems of the high-quality economic development of various regions and provinces,which is far-reaching significance to improve the high-quality economic development of various regions.Therefore,based on the statistical data of 30 provinces in China from2013 to 2018,this paper studies the key issues of China's high-quality economic development from the provincial and regional levels.Based on a new research perspective,this paper adopts more effective measurement methods to make the measurement of China's high-quality economic development more scientific and reliable.First of all,based on the economic logic and practical logic of high-quality economic development,this paper sets up the theoretical research framework of high-quality economic development of China,innovatively starts from the relationship between “quantity” and “quality” of high-quality economic development,and constructs the statistical measurement system with the goal of investigating the results of high-quality economic development,which effectively avoids the existing problems in the process of measurement,such as the serious confusion between result index and process index,which leads to the deviation of measurement results.At the same time,this paper puts forward a new statistical measurement model – “LL-VHSDEM” model,which breaks through the limitations of previous studies,such as insufficient index information extraction and incomparable measurement results,so as to provide an effective new method for scientific measurement of China's high-quality economic development.Furthermore,this paper selects 30 provinces and eight comprehensive economic regions of China as the main research objects,and uses “LLVHSD-EM” model to measure the level of China's high-quality economic development.At the same time,we use the difference coefficient measurement algorithm and coupling coordination degree model to systematically grasp the regional differences and coupling coordination level of China's high-quality economic development.Finally,we innovatively use the tool of geographic detector and propose a more appropriate new method for secondary processing of the data to detect the explanatory power of various dimensional factors of China's high-quality economic development.Then this paper selects labor input,capital input,science and technology input and other factors as explanatory variables from the macro level to construct a spatial durbin principal component model,empirically testing the macro factors that affect the high-quality development of China's economy,and innovatively introducing the spatial variance regression model GTWR model to explore the local effect and influence mechanism of each factor.Based on the above research,the main conclusions are as follows:1.The “LL-VHSD-EM” model constructed in this paper has good stability and superiority.Compared with the benchmark model,it can measure the high-quality development level of China's economy more accurately and reasonably.The overall measurement results show that,in the time dimension,the average level of China's highquality economic development fluctuates from 2013 to 2018.Liaoning,Shandong,Yunnan,Shaanxi,Ningxia and Hubei are the provinces whose high-quality development scores fluctuate greatly;eastern coastal areas,southern coastal areas,middle reaches of the Yangtze River and northwest areas are the regions with obvious growth,while the growth of other regions is not obvious.2.In terms of spatial dimension,in 2013,the high-quality development of China's economy presented the cascade distribution characteristics of “decreasing from coastal to inland”.In 2018,this characteristic evolved into the distribution characteristics of“coastal areas remain in the lead,northwest areas improve significantly,northeast areas fluctuate and decline,other areas develop slowly”.The test results of spatial correlation show that the high-quality development of China's economy presents a significant spatial distribution characteristics of “high value and high value agglomeration,low value and low value agglomeration”.In the past six years,the number of provinces in“high-high” areas has decreased and the number of provinces in “low-low” areas has increased,and the low value agglomeration has not been significantly improved.2.The measurement results of sub level show that,from 2013 to 2018,the average score of shared development level,ecological environment level and opening-up level has been improved,while the average score of stable economic development,coordinated development level and innovation driven level has decreased,and the evolution trend of the average score of high-quality economic development of various dimensions among provinces in China is obvious.The average score of stable economic development of the eight comprehensive economic zones has declined,and the level of shared development has improved the most.In the spatial dimension,at the provincial level,the development level of the six dimensions of high-quality economic development maintains the spatial distribution pattern of “the eastern region is ahead of the central and western regions,and the southern region is ahead of the northern region”.At the regional level,the average score of the six dimensions of the northern coastal areas has maintained the leading position in China;the innovation driven level and the opening-up level of the eastern coastal areas have a large room for improvement;the sharing development level of the southern coastal areas still needs to be improved;the average development level of other dimensions in the middle reaches of the Yellow River needs to be improved except for the ecological environment level.The development of economic stability,coordinated development and opening-up in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively slow;the average level of coordinated development in the northwest and southwest regions needs to be further improved;except for the higher level of ecological environment,the average level of other dimensions in the northeast region is relatively backward,and the development level of various fields needs to be improved.3.The measurement results of regional differences show that from 2013 to 2018,the regional differences of China's high-quality economic development have not been significantly improved,and the degree of differences among the eight comprehensive economic regions is showing a slightly expanding trend.As for the differences of highquality development within different regions,the internal differences in the northern coastal areas are significantly higher than those in other regions,followed by the eastern coastal areas and the middle reaches of the Yellow River,while the internal differences in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwest are less than those in other regions in most years.As for the differences of each dimension,the differences of coordinated development level and ecological environment level among provinces in China are narrowing,while the differences of other dimensions are expanding in varying degrees;the differences of ecological environment level among eight comprehensive economic regions are narrowing,while the differences of other dimensions are not significantly improved.4.From 2013 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of the six dimensions of China's Provincial Economic high-quality development is in a moderate coupling coordination state,and the differences of the six dimensions of the eight comprehensive economic regions are obvious.The regions with higher average score of economic highquality development have stronger coordination and interaction of the six dimensions,while the regions with lower score of economic high-quality development have stronger coupling coordination.On the whole,there is still much room to improve the coupling and coordination level of various systems in China's high-quality economic development.5.The results of the geographical detector on the various dimensions of China's high-quality economic development show that,on the whole,the explanatory power of the coordinated development level remains at the highest level,followed by the economic stability development factor and the shared development level factor;in most years,the explanatory power of the innovation driven level factor is the smallest.During the study period,the overall level of innovation driven high-quality economic development in various regions has increased,but it still needs to be improved.The interaction of any two factors in each year enhances the explanatory power of the spatial distribution of China's high-quality economic development.From the test results of spatial dubin principal component econometric model,we can see that fiscal expenditure has an important impact on China's high-quality economic development;R?D investment intensity and technology human investment level have a significant positive role in promoting high-quality economic development;investment level and labor input level also have a certain impact on China's high-quality economic development,and the investment is in a positive lag period.The regression results of GTWR model show that fiscal expenditure plays a significant role in promoting the high-quality economic development of China's eastern and northern coastal areas;R?D investment intensity plays a significant role in promoting the highquality economic development of China's northeast,eastern and northern coastal areas;labor input plays a significant role in promoting the high-quality economic development of China's northeast,eastern and northern coastal areas The results show that investment has a significant pulling effect on the high-quality economic development of the northwest and northeast regions;science and technology manpower investment has a greater pulling effect on the high-quality economic development of the southern coastal areas than other regions.