Empirical Study On The Asset Allocation Mechanism Of Manufacturing Industry In The New Era

Since the reform and opening up,China has witnessed rapid economic growth and the phenomenon of overcapacity has become a persistent disease of China's economy.The government has implemented positive fiscal policies and industrial policies to restrict investment to eliminate backward capacity for many times to intervene the market,but the governance of overcapacity failed to achieve the expected effect,and the government resolved overcapacity and fell into the more serious predicament.Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee,the government's idea of overcapacity has changed from administrative means to market-oriented governance.How to promote the coordination between market and government is an urgent problem.In the new period,the research on the mechanism of asset allocation in manufacturing industry under the effect of market transmission mechanism and policy effect is of great significance to effectively prevent and control the problem of overcapacity.Combining industry data and enterprise data,and comparing and analyzing from the perspective of industry characteristics and corporate behavior,we can not only find the characteristics of industry level research and enterprise level research,enrich the research on asset allocation mechanism,but also find the possible deficiencies in the research of industry data and enterprise data,so as to reveal the manufacturing industry capital in the new period more comprehensively The mechanism of production allocation provides reference and reference.Based on the dual perspective of industry characteristics and enterprise behavior,the research on the mechanism of asset allocation of manufacturing industry under the market transmission mechanism and policy effect in the new period is of great practical significance and theoretical value to better grasp the behavior selection and market rules of enterprises,promote the coordinated development of market and government,improve the efficiency of resource allocation and promote supply side structural reform.Based on the dual perspectives of industry characteristics and enterprise behavior,this paper makes an empirical research and comparative analysis on the asset allocation mechanism of manufacturing industry under the market transmission mechanism and policy effect in the new era.Firstly,this paper theoretically analyzes the mechanism of asset allocation in manufacturing industry under the influence of demand fluctuation and policy effect,as well as the differences between enterprise asset allocation behavior and industry characteristics;based on industry data,this paper empirically studies the overall characteristics of asset allocation under the influence of market demand;based on enterprise data,this paper empirically tests the influence of industry market demand and enterprise level demand on enterprise asset allocation behavior In this paper,we compared and analyzed the similar characteristics and differences between industry characteristics and enterprise behavior,and further explored the characteristics of enterprise asset allocation behavior in different development stages under the industry fluctuation;on the basis of the analysis of manufacturing industry asset allocation mechanism under the market transmission mechanism,we added Based on industry data,this paper empirically tests the difference between market transmission mechanism and fiscal policy effect on asset allocation mechanism;based on enterprise data,this paper empirically tests the mechanism of subsidy policy and enterprise level demand on enterprise asset allocation behavior,and the mechanism of subsidy policy on enterprise investment in different development stages under industry fluctuation,and further compares and analyzes the mechanism of subsidy policy Industry characteristics and enterprise behavior under the effect of policy.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:First,this paper analyzes the mechanism of asset allocation of manufacturing industry from two levels of enterprises and industries,and makes statistical analysis on the differences between the allocation behavior and the characteristics of the industry.Based on theoretical analysis,it is found that overcapacity is a natural phenomenon in the process of market development,but it is more likely to cause overcapacity under the joint action of market mechanism and policy effect.In the period of economic prosperity,investment and capacity are over entered under the stimulation of market demand expansion and policy effect;in the economic recession,policy effect can not alleviate the rigidity of capacity withdrawal when market demand declines,and excessive policy stimulation will easily lead to investment and capacity over entering again,and increase the risk of overcapacity.Based on statistical analysis,it is found that there are obvious differences between enterprise data and industry aggregate data in the real market.The industry characteristics are the result of the aggregation of all enterprise behaviors in the market.The industry data is the sum of all enterprise data,eliminating the deviation between enterprises.The research based on Industry level may not reflect the individual behavior choice of enterprises.Combining industry data and enterprise data It is of great significance to study the mechanism of asset allocation in manufacturing industry in the new period.Secondly,based on the industry data,the paper makes an empirical study on the overall characteristics of asset allocation under the influence of market demand.Firstly,the market demand is divided into two periods: market expansion and market decline.It explores the influence law of market demand expansion and decline on industry investment and capacity utilization rate.It is found that market demand expansion and market demand decline have asymmetric influence on capacity utilization and investment,and market demand expansion can significantly promote investment entry and improve capacity utilization rate,However,the decline of market demand can not lead to the timely withdrawal of capacity,and lead to a sharp decline in capacity utilization.Secondly,the paper divides the market demand shock into three stages by using threshold model to study the characteristics of industry investment and capacity allocation under the rapid expansion of market demand.It is found that the market demand expansion has nonlinear characteristics on capacity utilization and capacity investment level in different stages.With the rapid expansion of market demand level,the pull effect of demand level on investment has doubled,while the effect on the growth of capacity utilization rate gradually weakens until it is no longer affected,and the capacity has excessive entry.This means that the difficulty of capacity exit is the result of market mechanism failure when market demand declines,and market demand cannot lead to the timely exit of capacity.Therefore,it is impossible to guide the exit of production capacity only through market self-regulation mechanism;excessive investment is caused by the increase of the pulling effect of rapid expansion of market demand on investment,indicating that the market demand of high-speed expansion is more likely to lead to The upsurge in corporate investment has led to overcapacity.Thirdly,based on the enterprise data,the paper empirically tests the mechanism of market demand on the behavior of asset allocation,and compares it with the asset allocation characteristics found based on industry data.Firstly,based on the data of manufacturing industry and listed companies,the paper constructs the dual equation of asset stock and asset increment.The enterprise is divided into three states: recession period,development period and peak period.The paper explores the function law of enterprise level demand and industry market demand on asset allocation behavior.It finds that the demand of industry market and demand at enterprise level have nonlinear effect on asset allocation behavior of enterprises influence.Secondly,the comparative analysis of the characteristics of the industrial asset allocation and the behavior of the enterprise asset allocation shows that the influence of the expansion of the industry market demand on the investment and the investment of the enterprise is similar.The effect of the market demand on investment is obviously enhanced with the improvement of the state;the non-linear influence of the industry market demand on the industry investment and the enterprise investment and the non-linear demand of the enterprise level on the enterprise investment the impact is different.The role of industry market demand on enterprise investment in the peak period is obviously stronger than that of development period,while the role of enterprise level demand in the development period is obviously stronger than that of the peak.Fourth,based on the data of enterprises and industries,the paper makes an empirical study on the asset allocation behavior of enterprises under the fluctuation of the industry,compares and analyzes the asymmetry influence of the market demand on the characteristics of industry allocation and the behavior of enterprise allocation,and further explores the differences of asset allocation behavior of enterprises in different development stages under the fluctuation of the industry.The research finds that first,the market demand of the industry not only has direct and indirect influence on the asset allocation behavior of enterprises,but also has asymmetric influence on the period of market expansion and decline.The comparison shows that the expansion and decline of market demand have similar asymmetric effects on the investment level of enterprises and industries,while the asymmetric impact on the capacity utilization of enterprises is significantly different from that of the industry capacity utilization.Secondly,the market demand and enterprise level demand have different mechanism of action on different enterprises under the fluctuation of industry.The expansion of market demand is the main reason for the excessive investment of enterprises.The effect of the expansion of industry market demand on the investment behavior and the level of investment has been effective.The behavior selection of enterprises in the face of the expansion of industry market demand has the same characteristics.Once the market demand of the industry expands,all enterprises in the industry will choose to increase investment and expand capacity;the rigidity of capacity withdrawal caused by the decline of industry market demand is only effective when the demand of industry market and enterprise level declines simultaneously;when the market demand of the industry is opposite to the demand of enterprise level,the asset allocation behavior of enterprises is more affected by the demand of the industry market,but Because of the influence of individual enterprise,the influence of market demand on asset allocation behavior of enterprises in different stages is obviously different.Fifth,further empirical research on the market transmission mechanism and the financial policy under the role of asset allocation characteristics.The market state of steel industry is divided into boom period and decline period by building MS VAR model.Empirical research on the characteristics of industry asset allocation under the change of industry supply and demand and financial policy shows that under different market conditions,market transmission mechanism and financial policy have asymmetric effect on asset allocation.In the period of market expansion,market demand and fiscal policy can promote the investment entry and capacity promotion,but the market demand can induce investment and capacity far stronger than the stimulating effect of financial policy;in the period of market downturn,the adjustment of financial policy on investment is stronger than the inhibition of market demand contraction,and the influence of industry market demand on investment is not significant,while the financial policy has no significant impact on investment,while financial policy can promote investment entry and capacity promotion Government expenditure can promote the investment in the industry market,but guide the exit of excess capacity.The above results show that overcapacity is the objective result of market transmission mechanism in the process of market rapid development.The large-scale investment and rapid expansion of capacity are mainly caused by the continuous expansion of market demand in the rapid development stage of the industry,while the financial policy further promotes the over entry of investment and capacity.Sixth,based on the enterprise data,the paper makes an empirical study on the asset allocation behavior of enterprises under the enterprise level demand and subsidy policy.First,the paper empirically studies the difference between subsidy policy and enterprise level demand on the asset allocation behavior of enterprises,and analyzes whether or not the implementation of subsidy policy affects the asset allocation behavior of enterprises and the effect of the implementation of subsidy policies in different development stages.The research finds that the subsidy policy has direct and indirect influence on the investment and capacity utilization rate of enterprises.The implementation of subsidy policy can directly promote the increase of enterprise investment,which leads to the decline of capacity utilization rate,and also can enhance the inducement of enterprise level demand on enterprise investment and inhibit the pulling effect of enterprise level demand on the utilization rate of enterprise capacity.Secondly,the paper introduces the fluctuation of industry and the development state of enterprises to explore the effect of subsidy policy on the investment behavior of enterprises under the changes of industry fluctuation and enterprise state.It is found that the implementation effect of subsidy policy on enterprises in different development stages is obviously different under the fluctuation of industry market.Finally,the comparative analysis of the industry characteristics under the effect of market demand and policy effect and corporate behavior shows that the industry characteristics are consistent with the policy effects of enterprise behavior under the fluctuation of market demand.However,the asymmetric influence of subsidy policy on the investment behavior of enterprises in the rising period is significantly different from that of financial policies on the level of industry investment.