| As an important old industrial base in China,Northeast China has been known as the eldest son of the Republic.Since the founding of the People's Republic,it has provided strong support for accelerating the process of industrialization in China.With the new round of industrial revolution and the rapid development of information technology,the problems of the high proportion of traditional heavy chemical industry and energy raw material industry,the solidification and singleness of industrial structure in Northeast China have become increasingly prominent.The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries are difficult,and the emerging industries are small in scale and weak in growth-driving capacity.In addition,the obstacles of system and mechanism that have been formed for a long time have not been completely solved.The development of traditional industries and emerging industries is different,this leads to rigid and fragmented inter-industry development,and a two-way interactive development model has not yet been fully formed.The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "supporting the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries,promoting the industry to move towards the mid-to-high end of the global value chain,deepening reform and accelerating the revitalization of old industrial bases such as the Northeast." On September 28,2018,General Secretary Xi stressed at the Northeast Revitalization Symposium that " actively support the development of emerging industries,and form a pattern of industrial development with multiple industries and multiple developments." How to realize the integration and development of traditional industries and emerging industries in Northeast China is of great fundamental and strategic significance for the realization of industrial revitalization,real economy revitalization,comprehensive and all-round revitalization in Northeast China.Therefore,this paper holds that it is necessary to accurately evaluate the integration ability of traditional industries and emerging industries in Northeast China,to identify the main factors affecting the integration ability of industries,to analyze the driving effect of the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries on innovation and enterprise growth,and to test the integration effect of traditional industries and emerging industries.It has important theoretical,empirical and policy reference value to comprehensive analysisthe internal compliance between the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of emerging industries in northeast China,and to promote the integration ability and effect of new industries and traditional industries.The research contents and conclusions of the core chapters of this paper are as follows:Chapter 3 analyzes the internal logic and related theories of the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries,and constructs the theoretical framework of this paper.Firstly,combining the characteristics and facts of industrial development in Northeast China,this paper analyzes the demand-side and supply-side driving factors of the integration development of traditional industries and emerging industries,involving the total amount of retail sales of social consumer goods,the amount of fixed asset investment completed,general public budget expenditure,R&D personnel and funds expenditure,the number of employees and the scale of social financing,etc.,to illustrate the importance and urgency of integrated development,and to characterize the feasibility of integrated development in terms of per capita regional gross domestic product,the proportion of secondary sector of the economy value added and the number of internet broadband access ports,relying on the theoretical basis of the expenditure method for calculating GDP and the core connotation of the modern industrial system,building up the theoretical analysis frame of the integration development ability,the integration development channel and the integration development effect of the traditional industries and the emerging industries,and carries on the theory explanation that the traditional industry and the emerging industry integration development intrinsic logic and the operating mechanism.The results show that the downward pressure on the real economy in Northeast China has increased,resulting in a downward trends in the demand-and supply-driven indicators,however,some subsectors of high tech still show strong comparative advantages,and the indicators of business environment show a good development trend demand-driven,supply-driven and business environment are important factors in determining the capacity of integrated development.The integration of technologies,products,businesses and organizations,and markets are the main channels for integration development,under the effect of the support policies for emerging industries,the adjustment and transformation policies for traditional industries and the financial support policies,the enterprises which have adopted such approaches as R&D alliance,merger and reorganization,and transformation,etc.,can achieve the effects of integration development in industrial structure upgrading,general public budget expenditure optimization,energy saving,emission reduction and productivity improvement.Chapter 4 firstly decomposes the industrial integration capability into three dimensions:demand-driven,supply-driven and business environment.Based on the data of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2016,use the expenditure method of calculating regional gross domestic product and the synergistic characteristics of modern industrial system asthe theoretical basis,adopt theindex efficacy function method to deal with the dimensionless index,and the principal component analysis method is used to determine the weight.The integration capability index of traditional industries and emerging industries is constructed;Secondly,based on the informatization of Internet broadband access users,the scientific and technological innovations characterized by government R&D investment,financing level represented by RMB loans of financial institutions and other industrial policy tools to evaluating the promoting effect of integration ability between traditional industry and emerging industry.The empirical analysis of the system GMM model and the panel VAR model provides an empirical basis for industrial policy choices to enhance industrial integration capabilities.The results show that,in general,most cities in Northeast China have a low level of industrial integration ability.The integration ability of traditional industries and emerging industries in Shenyang,Dalian,Changchun,Harbin and Daqing is significantly higher than that in other cities in Northeast China;the business environment has a significant weight in the index of industrial integration ability than demand-driven and supply-driven.The number of Internet broadband access users has the highest weight in the business environment;The weight of scientific and technological innovation in supply-driven is far ahead.while human resources are at the lowest level;the weight of credit in supply-driven is also declining;the number of Internet broadband access users and RMB loans of financial institutions have significantly improved the ability of industrial integration,and the effect of informatization on the improvement of industrial integration capacity is significantly higher than the credit support policy;the government's investment in science and technology has not effectively improved the ability of industrial integration.In the long run,the impact of a standard deviation on the number of Internet broadband access users,general public budget expenditure on science and technology,and RMB loans of financial institutions has a significant positive effect on the ability of industrial integration at the beginning of the term,and this positive effect is gradually stable in the long run;In terms of predictive variance decomposition,the variance contribution rate of the Internet broadband access users to the industry integration capability index reached 7.17%in the 10th period,and The variance contribution rate of general public budget expenditure on science and technology to the index of industrial integration ability reached 11.30%in the 10th period,and that of RMB loans of financial institutions reached 9.11%in the 10th period.The northeast region should consolidate the advantages of information technology,supplement the shortcomings of science and technology investment,and vigorously develop modern finance,so as to promote the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries with precise industrial policy tools.Chapter 5 based on the patent application data of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2009 to 2016,conducts a quasi-natural experiment on the impact of the integration development policy of traditional industries and emerging industries on innovation output to test whether the technology spillover and driving effect of emerging industries on traditional industries has been realized in Northeast China;Secondly,this paper explores the impact of the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries on the profitability and growth of enterprises.Based on the data of 78 listed companies from the WIND databases in the Northeast Revitalization Section of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2003 to 2017,this paper makes an empirical study on the impact of the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries on the return on total assets and return on net assets.The results show that the integration policy of traditional industries and emerging industries has a positive impact on patent applications in Northeast China,but the positive impact is not statistically significant,indicating that there is a greater inertia of technological innovation between traditional industries and emerging industries in Northeast China.In addition,the impact of science and technology expenditure of general public budget on patent applications is significantly positive.The increase of science and technology expenditure of general public budget by 1%will promote the increase of patent applications by about 0.29%.The increase of government R&D input is an important force to promote innovation output;the number of Internet broadband access users has a significant negative impact on the number of patent applications,increasing the number of Internet broadband access users by 1%will reduce the number of patent applications by 0.69%,it shows that informatization has weakened the driving force of innovation.The possible reason is that the large-scale application of the Internet makes knowledge and technology easier to disseminate and learn,leading to the introduction of absorption or imitation innovation more prominent,which significantly reduces the initiative of independent innovation;The integration policy of traditional industries and emerging industries has significantly improved the return on total assets of listed companies.The growth rate of net profit compared with the same period of the previous year and the taxes and fees paid have a significant negative impact on the return on total assets.The integration policy of traditional industries and emerging industries has no significant positive impact on the return on net assets.The growth rate of net profit compared with the same period of the previous year and the taxes and fees paid have a significant negative impact on the return on net assets.The scale expansion of listed companies in Northeast China is significantly faster than the improvement of profitability,which indicates that the extensive growth mode of enterprises is still obvious in the process of revitalization of Northeast region.The R&D investment in Northeast China should focus on the common technology fields of traditional industries and emerging industries,and exert the two-way technology spillover effect of traditional industries and emerging industries.Furthermore,we should accelerate the promotion of innovation output,rationally curb the negative impact of informatization on the initiative of independent innovation,increase the intensity of tax reduction and fee reduction,and promote the high-quality integration development of traditional industries and emerging industries with innovation-driven as the core from the enterprise level.Chapter 6 takes 23 prefecture-level cities selected from the list of "National Old Industrial Base Adjustment and Reconstruction Plan(2013-2022)" in Northeast China as the experimental group for the implementation of industrial integration development policy,and the remaining 11 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China as the control group,based on the adjustment of the target variables,the DID model and the PSM-DID model were used to conduct a quasi-natural experiment on the effects of the integration development policy of traditional industries and emerging industries in Northeast China from 2003 to 2016.The results show that the policy of integration of traditional industries and emerging industries significantly promotes the upgrading of industrial structure in Northeast China,and significantly reduces electricity consumption per unit GDP and enhances the labor productivity of secondary industry,but it has no significant impacts on general public budget expenditure and industrial sulfur dioxide emissions.The improvement of labor productivity in the secondary industry has restrained the trend of service-oriented industrial structure,indicating that high-quality industrial development is still the core task of the real economic development of the old industrial base in Northeast China.The scale of Internet broadband access has no significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,but significantly reduces the electricity consumption per unit GDP.The northeast region must thoroughly implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi's important speech at the Northeast Revitalization Symposium,focusing on the inclination of budget arrangement in infrastructure construction and urban service functions;implementing the green development concept of "Green Water and Green Mountains are Jinshan and Yinshan",and taking pollutant emission reduction as the primary task of high-quality industrial development;give full play to the technological synergy between traditional industries and emerging industries,and promote the optimization of the structure of innovation factors in industry;with a higher level of opening up and better foreign investment entry,we should revitalize the international flow of all kinds of elements in the northeast old industrial base,promote the development of high quality industries by means of information technology represented by "Internet +",and then greatly enhance the integration and development effect of traditional industries and new industries in Northeast China.Compared with the existing literature,the possible contributions or innovations of this paper are mainly reflected as follows:Innovations in the theoretical framework,measurement and analysis of the integration capability index of traditional industries and emerging industries are mainly reflected in:Firstly,the integration ability of traditional industries and emerging industries is decomposed into three dimensions:demand-driven,supply-driven and business environment.The demand side of individual consumption,enterprise investment and government expenditure is theoretically defined from the perspective of expenditure method of GDP accounting.The demand side of individual consumption,enterprise investment and government expenditure is theoretically defined from the perspective of expenditure method of GDP accounting.The supply side of scientific and technological innovation,human resources and modern finance is theoretically defined from the dimension of coordinated development of modern industrial system;from the macro point of view,this paper defines the theoretical business environment composed of the level of economic development,industrial structure and information level;Secondly,the index efficacy function is used to deal with all levels of indicators in dimensionless way,and the weights are determined based on the principal component analysis method to construct the integration capability index of traditional industries and emerging industries;Thirdly,in order to highlight the characteristics of the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries,it is proposed to use panel data of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2016 to calculate the index of industrial integration ability year by year,which is different from the relevant research at provincial level;Fourthly,in order to overcome the possible endogenous among variables,panel data model estimation based on system GMM method can effectively overcome the endogenous problem to ensure the reliability of conclusions;Fifthly,we intend to explore the possible differential impact of major industrial policies,such as Internet broadband access,general public budget expenditure on science and technology,and RMB loans from financial institutions,on the integration ability of traditional industries and emerging industries,which can provide a firmly empirical basis for industrial policy choices to enhance the integration ability of industries.In the analysis of innovation driving effect and enterprise growth effect of integration of traditional industry and emerging industry,the innovation points of this paper are mainly embodied in:Firstly,the research perspective is relatively novel,capturing the innovative effect of the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries,and conducting a more in-depth study on the growth effect of enterprises from the dimension of industrial integration and development;Secondly,the patent data of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2009 to 2016 and related financial data of 78 listed companies in Northeast China from 2003 to 2017 were collected comprehensively,which provided micro-data support for further study on the integration effect of traditional industries and emerging industries in Northeast China;Thirdly,the driving effect of industrial integration and the growth effect of enterprises are empirically studied by using the double difference model,which provides a quantitative basis for identifying whether there is a two-way technology spillover effect between traditional industries and emerging industries in Northeast China and the impact of industrial integration policy on enterprise growth.It also provides a decision-making reference for better implementation of innovation-driven strategy and related industrial support policy.The limitations of existing literature on the integration of traditional industries and emerging industries are mainly reflected in:First,the subjectivity of theoretical analysis is strong,showing a relatively rough feature,and the measurement model or method of the level of integration development between emerging industries and traditional industries is relatively single;secondly,taking some representative industries as examples to measure the degree of integration,the research scope is relatively narrow;thirdly,empirical research on the effect of integration of emerging industries and traditional industries is limited to industrial performance,and there is a lack of comprehensive design and evaluation of the index system of the development effect of industrial integration.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:firstly,34 cities in Northeast China with relatively obvious differentiation between emerging industries and traditional industries are selected as research objects,which have strong pertinence;secondly,it is highly reasonable to use the time junction node of the traditional industrial transformation and upgrading policy and the implementation of the emerging industry development strategy as the key basis for quasi-natural experiment of the effect of industrial integration and development;thirdly,the multi-dimensional effect evaluation index is constructed based on the reconstruction target set by "National Old Industrial Base Adjustment and Reconstruction Plan(2013-2022)" and the empirical research is carried out separately,which can provide a firmly empirical basis for policy design to promote the integration of emerging industries and traditional industries to improve the quality of development. |
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