| Since China entered the aging society at the beginning of the 21 st century,the impact of population structure change on economic and social development has been widely concerned by all walks of life.Especially in recent years,the accelerating trend of aging in China has caused the gradual disappearance of "demographic dividend".It is indisputable that aging will have a certain negative impact on economic growth and increase the burden of family and society fact.However,in a long period of time in the future,the objective reality of the acceleration of population aging trend in China is irreversible.How to correctly treat the growing large elderly population group is a major practical problem in China's current economic and social development.The Party Central Committee and the State Council have made "actively coping with the aging population" as a national strategy.Because the relationship between generations is closer than that in western countries,after the old people withdraw from the formal labor market and return home,most of the middle-aged and young people will continue to contribute to the family through family labor support,and more economic resources will be inclined to the old people in the family to ensure their consumption in their later years.When the spontaneous economic behavior within the micro family has universality,these economic behaviors may have an impact on the macro-economy through the family as the intermediary.Therefore,the positive role of the elderly population in China on economic growth through the family is stronger than most countries in the world,which has typical Chinese characteristics.Previous studies did not focus on the positive impact of the family elderly population on economic growth,leading to some omissions in the scientific understanding of the economic and social value of the elderly population.Therefore,taking the family economic behavior of the elderly population in China as the breakthrough point,this paper makes a normative and systematic study on the family economic behavior of the elderly population in China from the aspects of realistic characteristics,theoretical mechanism,empirical verification and policy recommendations.The positive effect of the elderly population on economic growth is not only conducive to a correct and objective understanding of the contribution and value of the elderly population,but also conducive to changing the traditional concept of the elderly population as a pure consumptive group,and to better respond to the aging population.On the basis of reviewing the relevant basic theories and reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper mainly studies from the following aspects:(1)the characteristic facts of the family economic behavior of the elderly population in China under the background of aging.Combined with the current situation and trend of China's aging population,this paper analyzes and summarizes the realistic background,characteristics and impact on economic growth of family labor support behavior and family consumption behavior of the elderly population in China.(2)The mechanism and mathematical analysis of the positive effect of family elderly population on economic growth in China.This paper theoretically analyzes the positive effects of the two kinds of family economic behaviors of the elderly population on economic growth from different paths.One is the mechanism of the positive effects of the labor support of the elderly population based on " skip-generation raising " on economic growth from the supply side factor supply path.It extracts the enhancement effect of labor supply,the guarantee effect of human capital accumulation,and the family savings.The other is the mechanism of the positive effect of family elderly consumption on economic growth from the total consumption path of the demand side,which refines the three positive effects of demand expansion pulling effect,consumption growth point expediting effect and industrial structure upgrading effect,and draws lessons from Marx's theory,this paper makes a mathematical analysis of the relationship between consumption and production.(3)An empirical analysis of the positive effect of the elderly population on economic growth in China.Using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)and some macroeconomic data,this paper empirically verifies that family labor support of the elderly can significantly improve the labor participation rate and labor participation time of adult children in the family,significantly reduce the family expenditure on the education of grandchildren,and significantly improve the family savings rate;and empirically verifies the impact of the expansion of the total scale of family consumption of the elderly on economic growth The driving force of economic growth is increasing.Family aging has significantly increased the consumption expenditure of families in medical care,health care,tourism,family services,and is expected to give birth to the new consumption growth point of the elderly service industry.The change of family consumption structure caused by family aging can promote the upgrading of industrial structure.(4)Policy recommendations.In order to better respond to the aging population,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from the aspects of respecting the family and social value of the elderly population,reasonably developing the resources of the elderly population,ensuring and stimulating the consumption of the elderly population,and developing the elderly service industry.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)in the aspect of research perspective,it focuses on the positive effect of family elderly population on economic growth under the background of aging.Previous studies ignored the positive impact of family elderly population on economic growth and its Chinese characteristics,so it is a positive attempt to choose this direction.(2)In terms of theoretical analysis,this paper constructs the analysis framework of the positive effect of family elderly population on economic growth,and extracts the relevant positive effect.Based on the characteristic facts of the family economic behavior of the elderly population in China,this paper brings the family labor support behavior and consumption behavior of the elderly population into the analysis framework of supply side and demand side which affect economic growth,abstracts six positive effects of the family elderly population on economic growth from a theoretical point of view,and makes a mathematical analysis.(3)In the empirical aspect,the positive effect of family elderly population on economic growth is verified.Using the micro data of CFPS and some macroeconomic data,this paper selects the control variables,instrumental variables and intermediary variables according to the family characteristics and the family economic behavior characteristics of the elderly population in China,and uses the instrumental variable method,propensity score matching,intermediary variable method,heterogeneity analysis and other measurement methods,estimation models and analysis methods to extract the six positive variables The empirical verification of the effect makes the research conclusion more substantial,more convincing and more consistent with the characteristics of Chinese families. |
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