Monitoring And Risk Prevention And Control Of Fund Reserve Within The Basic Old-age Insurance System For Urban Workers In China

According to the China Statistical Yearbook 2019,the pension incomes of basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers in Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Hubei and Qinghai provinces in2018 has not covered its pension expenditures.With the continuous deepening of China's aging population,more and more provinces will face the dilemma that the current pension contribution incomes does not cover the pension expenditures,making the fund gradually appear this dilemma at the national level,which brings severe challenges to the sustainable development of basic old-age insurance.Thus,it is necessary to monitor fund reserve of the basic old-age insurance and evaluate its sustainability,which is the first starting point for the topic.The Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,and the government work reports in 2019 and 2020 all mentioned the need to ensure the full payment of pension and make the social security fund sustainable.This shows that the sustainability of the basic old-age insurance system has always been valued by the government,so the evaluation of the sustainability of the basic old-age insurance system is the second starting point for selecting the topic.In recent years,the successive policies issued by the government have the complex impact on the sustainability of the basic old-age insurance,such as the unified collection of social insurance premium by the tax department,and the implementation of the “Comprehensive Scheme for Reducing Social Insurance Contribution Rates”,which have the complex effects on the sustainable operation of the insurance system.Thus,examining the impact of important policies on the fund reserve within employees' basic old-age insurance is the third starting point of the topic.At present,there is no actuarial reporting system for basic old-age insurance in China.We can learn from the “OASDI” report of the United States,use actuarial methods to monitor the fund reserve of basic old-age insurance in China,and prepare risk prevention and control scheme when the fund reserve of old-age insurance is insufficient,which can enlighten the establishment of actuarial reporting system of basic old-age insurance in China in the future.This is the fourth starting point of the topic.In addition,the fund reserve of basic old-age insurance and its sustainability are also one of the hot spots of domestic and foreign academic circles,which also support the topic selection of this article.To sum up,it is of great research significance to monitor the fund reserve of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers,and to analyze the risk prevention and control when the fund reserve is insufficient.It can improve the ability of sustainable operation of basic old-age insurance,promote the realization of the requirements of sustainable construction of basic old-age insurance system in the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC Central Committee and the 19 th CPC National Congress,help consolidate the fund reserve of basic old-age insurance,and lay the foundation for China to successfully deal with the aging population.This article constructs the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for enterprise workers based on the State Council Document 26 in 1997(Decision on Establishing a Unified Basic Pension System for Enterprise Employees)and the State Council Document 38 in 2005(Decision on Improving the Basic Pension System for Urban Employees),and constructs the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for government offices and public institutions based on the State Council Document 2 in 2015(Decision of the State Council on the reform of the old-age insurance system for the staff of government organs and institutions)and the 28 document in 2015(Notice of the Ministry of human resources and social security and the Ministry of Finance on the implementation of the State Council Document 2 in 2015)issued by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security,and further summarizes to obtain the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban workers.Based on the actuarial model,the following four main researches are carried out.First,we estimate the basic situation of fund reserve within basic old-age insurance for urban workers.Second,based on the basic situation of fund reserve,we further explore the influence of three policy factors on the fund reserve,including the“comprehensive two child” policy,reform of contribution levy system and delaying retirement policy.Third,for the long-term(next 75 years),the uncertainty of the fund reserve within urban workers' basic old-age insurance is randomly described.Finally,when the fund reserve is insufficient,the risk prevention and control of basic pension payment is analyzed.Referring to the “National Emergency Plan for Natural Disaster Relief”,the risk prevention and control scheme of basic old-age payment is initially established.The article consists of eight chapters.Chapter 1 introduces the five starting points,the purpose and significance of this research,and briefly explains the main research contents of the four parts and the logical relationship among them.Then,it introduces the methods of this study,the most important of which is actuarial method.Finally,the four main innovations of this study are described.Chapter 2 comprehensively sorts out the previous research related to old-age insurance,and summarizes and forms the related research venation.The relevant research is mainly divided into two categories,one is focused on the old-age insurance system itself,and the other is focused on research on the calculation of pensions.Among them,the research on the calculation of pensions can be divided into four parts.This article belongs to the research on the calculation of pensions,which is the integration and promotion of the second part to the fourth part of the pension research.To review the existing research,on the one hand,the most suitable research method is the actuarial method,and on the other hand,the four deficiencies in the previous literature are obtained.Chapter 3 constructs the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the basic oldage insurance for enterprise workers and the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for government offices and public institutions,and further summarizes to obtain the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for urban workers,which can reflect that the basic old-age insurance for urban workers currently contains the meaning of these two basic old-age insurance at the same time.Based on the documents of State Council Document 26 in 1997 and State Council Document38 in 2005,its insured persons are divided into “old persons”,“middle persons” and “new persons”,and the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for enterprise workers is constructed.Based on the documents of State Council Document 2 in2015 and the 28 document in 2015 issued by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security,its insured persons are divided into “old persons”,“transitional persons”,“posttransitional persons” and “new persons”,and the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for government offices and public institutions is constructed.These two actuarial models are summarized to obtain the actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for urban workers.Chapter 4 studies the first part of the main content: calculating the basic situation of fund reserve within basic old-age insurance for urban workers.Based on the established actuarial model of the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance,select the current year's balance of income and expenditure,accumulated balance and fund rate to measure the fund reserve of basic old-age insurance,calibrate the relevant parameters,and use MATLAB software to program and calculate to obtain the basic situation and change trend of fund reserve of basic old-age insurance.Chapter 5 studies the second part of the main content: analyzing the influence of policy factors on the fund reserve within basic old-age insurance for urban workers.Taking the basic situation of fund reserve in Chapter 4 as the basic scenario,we further analyzes the influence of the “comprehensive two child” policy,reform of contribution levy system and delaying retirement policy on the fund reserve.Two indicators related to changes in cumulative balances(variations in cumulative balances during the forecast period and the average change in cumulative balances during the entire forecast period)are used to measure the impact of policies on fund reserve.This article designs 51 possible influence schemes of the “comprehensive twochild” policy on China's future total fertility rate,101 possible influence paths of the levy system reform on the proportion of contribution wages to the statistical average wages,and 48 possible delaying retirement schemes of the two kinds of ways,respectively,to analyze the impact of each of these three policies on fund reserve.The various schemes of policy implementation are designed to obtain reliable policy effects.In reality,the implementation effect of the three policies will inevitably be superimposed together,so we will further analyze the comprehensive impact of the three policies on the fund reserve.Chapter 6 studies the third part of the main content: for the long-term,exploring the uncertainty range and probability of the fund reserve within basic old-age insurance for urban wokers.When monitoring the fund reserve for the next 75 years,the uncertainty of fund reserve must be considered.On the one hand,the uncertainty comes from the diversity of the implementation effects of the “comprehensive two child” policy,reform of contribution levy system and delaying retirement policy;on the other hand,it comes from the complexity and variability of the economic environment and the development of the basic old-age insurance system itself.Based on the two sources of uncertainty,11 random factors are specifically considered,and 5,000 stochastic simulations are performed using Monte Carlo technology to obtain the uncertainty range and probability of the fund reserve of basic old-age insurance for urban wokers.Furthermore,we analyze the comprehensive impulsive force of two kinds of sources of uncertainty on fund reserve,and analyze the single impulsive force of 11 factors of two kinds of sources on fund reserve to obtain the uncertainty degree of fund reserve caused by each factor.Chapter 7 studies the fourth part of the main content: when the fund reserve being insufficient,conducting basic pension payment risk prevention and control analysis and compiling risk prevention and control scheme.Chapter 6 finds that the fund reserve within urban wokers' basic old-age insurance will be seriously insufficient in the next 75 years,so it is necessary to study the risk of basic pension payment and its prevention and control.First,based on the above 5000 times of random simulation results of fund reserve,we further get the scope and probability of basic old-age insurance payment risk measured by the current year's payment gap,the proportion of current year's payment gap in fiscal income and the cumulative payment gap.Second,the proportion of current year's payment gap in fiscal revenue is used as an early warning indicator of the degree of fiscal risk caused by the pressure of basic pension payment,and the year intervals for each level of fiscal risk at different quantiles are obtained.Finally,referring to the “National Emergency Plan for Natural Disaster Relief”,the risk prevention and control scheme of basic old-age payment is initially established.Chapter 8 summarizes the results of the main research content of above four parts,and condenses eight main conclusions in detail.Based on the above conclusions,four enlightenments to consolidate fund reserve within the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers are obtained.First,there is an urgent need to establish a monitoring and early warning system for fund reserve of basic old-age insurance.Second,measures can be taken to further improve the implementation effect of the “comprehensive two-child” policy,and within the scope of the enterprise's affordability,gradually advance the taxation department's unified collection of social insurance premiums.Third,actively promote the introduction of delaying retirement policies,formulate more reasonable delaying retirement policies,and implement flexible retirement and incentives for late retirement.Fourth,gradually establish the basic pension payment risk prevention and control scheme with “expert database” and “program database” as the core.To improve the four deficiencies of previous studies,we get the corresponding four main innovation points of this paper.First,most of the existing literatures in the study of the basic old-age insurance for urban wokers seldom involve the basic old-age insurance for government organs and institutions,which does not reflect the current meaning of the basic old-age insurance for urban employees.This paper constructs the actuarial model of income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for enterprise wokers and for government organs and institutions,and summarizes to obtain the actuarial model of income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban wokers.Second,when the existing literatures discusse the impact of policy factors such as the birth policy and the reform of the levy system,on the one hand,less literatures consider the uncertainty of the implementation effects of policy,on the other hand,there are few literatures that consider the comprehensive impact of these policies.But in practice,the implementation effect of each policy is uncertain,and the implementation effect of each policy is often superimposed together,these policies will form a comprehensive impact.This article considers the uncertainty of the implementation effect of policy,and designs diversified schemes of the implementation effect of policy to obtain more reliable impact of policy on fund reserve.We design 51 possible influence schemes of the “comprehensive two-child” policy on China's future total fertility rate,101 possible influence paths of the levy system reform,and 48 possible delaying retirement schemes,and analyze these policies on fund reserve.In addition,the comprehensive impact of the three policies is further analyzed.Third,stochastic technology has been introduced into the research of old-age insurance,but it has not directly focused on the uncertainty of the financial situation of basic old-age insurance.Although a small number of literatures focus on this aspect,they only focus on the part of the basic old-age insurance,and do not examine the uncertainty of financial situation from the whole(including basic pension,transitional pension and individual accounts pension).In addition,the existing domestic studies consider at most three random factors,and lack of comprehensive randomization of suitable parameters.This article considers the two sources of uncertainty,a total of 11 random factors,using Monte Carlo technology,through 5000 random simulations,the uncertainty range of the fund reserve within urban employees' basic old-age insurance and its corresponding probability are obtained.Fourth,there are few studies on pension risk prevention and control mechanisms,and when studying pension financial risks and their early warning,although the early warning index system has been comprehensively established from various angles,the index involved is broad and not in-depth,and it is not combined with the important documents of China's basic old-age insurance system.On the basis of the above actuarial model built on important documents and depicting the uncertainty of fund reserve,this paper analyzes the risk of basic old-age payment and the early warning analysis of the financial risk caused by the payment risk when the fund reserve is insufficient,and tries to establish the prevention and control scheme of the basic pension payment risk.