Research On The Influence Of Forest Resources Allocation On Timber Supply

The continuous expansion of timber demand,the continuous advancement of forest ecological construction,and the continuous implementation of protection trade policies in the international timber market have made the prominent contradiction between China’s timber supply and demand.Given that China’s forestry “supply-side” reform and the optimization of the country’s spatial pattern have acted,adjusting forest resource allocation to enhance its supply service capabilities is one of the effective ways to promote sustainable timber supply,and is also meeting the new requirements and tasks of forestry “supply-side” reform for sustainable forestry development.So,how the allocation of forest resources affects the timber supply(capacity),and how to adjust the allocation of China’s forest resources to increase timber supply(capacity)and reduce the gap between timber supply and demand are worth further exploration.Therefore,based on timber supply theory,equilibrium theory and related theories of resource economics,this study uses econometric models,optimization models and other methods to quantitatively analyze the impact mechanism of "forest transformation",forest species substitution,tree species selection and timber supply from scale expansion and quality improvement,afforestation and harvesting perspective,after analyzing China’s timber supply and forest resources status.Then,this study uses timber market model to predict the impact of forest resource allocation adjustment plans,then proposes measures and suggestions to optimize the allocation of forest resources and achieve enough timber for sustainable supply and coordinated development of the ecological environment.The main conclusions are as follows:First,China’s domestic timber supply and demand gap has widened,and the risk of timber supply being affected by the international market has increased.From 2019 to 2025,China’s timber supply will grow at an average annual rate of 1%,and China’s timber demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1.3%.The growth rate of timber supply will be lower than the growth rate of demand,so the gap between supply and demand will increase year by year.The import dependence of China’s timber supply will increase year by year,and it will reach 55% in 2025.The risk of China’s timber supply being affected by the international market is constantly increasing.Second,from different goal orientations,the level of forest resource allocation varies significantly between regions,and it has great potential for optimization.From the perspective of economic benefit orientation,regions with high levels of forest resource allocation are concentrated in some provinces in the northeast and southwest;from the perspective of ecological benefit orientation,the level of forest resource allocation in most regions has increased significantly,but there are only 1/5 of the regions at higher levels;from the perspective of economic and ecological benefits orientation,the level of allocation of forest resources has been enhanced,but still more than 3/4 of the regions has great potential for optimization.Third,from the perspective of the impact of forest transformation on timber supply,China’s forest transformation is basically completed.The future forest process will promote the growth of timber supply,but the impact of forest transformation on timber supply varies in different regions.The restoration and promotion of the quantity and quality of forests in China are the result of economic development and forestry protection policies.The transformation of forest resource quality has the greatest impact on timber supply,and the areas with better forest transformation effects have a significant impact on timber supply.Fourth,from the perspective of the impact of forest species allocation on timber supply,the land use competition among forest species will tend to become more apparent.If the area proportion of non-profit forest is increased by 1 unit,the coverage of commercial forest will decrease by 0.028 units;if the area proportion of economic forest is increased by 1 unit,the coverage of timber forest will decrease by 0.023 units.Economic forest management can only guarantee the livelihood of the operators and does not have an investment effect.So,it inhibits the increase in timber production.In the scenario of non-profit forests replace commercial forests,the impact of forest species allocation changes on the supply of coniferous logs is(-4.31%,-0.26%),and the impact of broad-leaved logs is(-1.06%,-0.64%).The range of impact on net imports is(-0.62%,2.54%)and(3.44%,5.38%).Log market response lag period is about 5 years.In the scenario of economic forests replace timber forests,the impact of forest species allocation changes on China’s timber market is similar to the impact of the non-commercial forest replace commercial forest scenario,but the impact is relatively small.Fifth,from the perspective of the impact of tree species structure on timber supply,based on the optimization plan of tree species harvesting structure which weighs forest economical and carbon storage benefits,the proportion of coniferous timber supply increases,and the market impact is obvious.In the optimization plan,the main tree species harvested are eucalyptus,poplar,Chinese fir,masson pine and other major coniferous species.The average proportion of non-coniferous timber supply is 76%,and the average proportion of coniferous timber supply is 24%.In the timber market,the impact of harvesting structure adjustment of tree species on coniferous logs supply is(0.97%,1.34%),the impact of nonconiferous logs supply is(-0.34%,-0.04%),the net imports of coniferous logs change(-1.37%,-0.50%),while the net imports of non-coniferous logs change(0.59%,3.37%).The adjustment of tree species structure has the greatest impact on the coniferous lumber market,but it has only a small fluctuation in the non-coniferous lumber market,around 0.6%.The impact on plywood market is minimal.Sixth,based on the results of the above research,this study puts forward suggestions for the rationalization of forest resource allocation and the promotion of sustainable timber supply.In terms of rationalization of forest resource allocation,the quantity and quality of forests in China should be improved by strengthening the guidance of the forestry department.At the same time,the structure of forest resources should be adjusted to enhance forest regulation services in poor forest areas and highlight the advantages of forest supply services in rich forest areas.In terms of promoting the sustainable timber supply,it is necessary to improve the recycling of timber usage and strengthen international trade cooperation and exchanges,then resolve the further contradiction between supply and demand in the timber market.