| Micro-grid,one of the ways to realize smart grid,is the most effective decentralized energy system.It can not only use green renewable energy to reduce environmental pollution,but also improve the reliability and stability of the grid through auxiliary services such as spare capacity,and meet the unbalanced growth of energy demand that traditional grids cannot afford.Micro-grids dilute the monopoly of traditional large power grids and introduce multi-stakeholders' participation in the power market.And the micro-grid is developed in a cooperative mode.However,according to the“incomplete contracting theory”,a “trap” of partner betrayal may lie in any seemingly perfect cooperation.In addition,the micro-grid assets are highly specific and the project construction is special,so great cooperation risks exist in the project development.Studying the risk occurrence mechanism and establishing cooperation and risk prevention are indispensable conditions for the development of micro-grid projects.In this paper the stakeholder theory and economics of transaction cost are mainly used to study the cooperation risks and prevention in the development of micro-grid projects.Firstly,through the literature review,the research results of the domestic and international micro-grid project development and the related theoretical research are summarized.Secondly,via the project fieldwork,interview and theoretical analysis,the stakeholders and their appeals are summarized in the three stages of the micro-grid planning,development and construction and operation,and on this basis the risk occurrence mechanism of cooperative development is discussed;again,the prevention of cooperation risks in the stage of micro-grid planning is explored through a bi-level programming model;from then on,the prevention of cooperation risks in the stage of development and construction are raised by the tripartite cooperation game;Finally,through a bi-level programming model,the prevention of cooperation risks is studied in the stage of micro-grid operation and maintenance.The main research contents and innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)the typical stakeholder relationship model of micro-grid in the three stages of planning,development,construction and operation and maintenance is established.This theoretical innovation is different from the conventional stakeholder analysis.In the stage of planning,micro-grid investors and grid companies play a leading and decision-making role in project development.The grid company has concern that the micro-grid will occupy the power market it monopolized,and therefore,is unwilling to cooperate.Micro-grid investors must find the space for project survival in a monopolistic market environment.The two parts are in a competitive relationship of leadership and follow-up;in the stage of development and construction,the micro-grid investors,grid companies and users participate in project decisions and play a leading role.The grid company has the decision on the grid connection of the micro-grid and the on-grid price.The micro-grid investor has project ownership and construction rights.Users are required by law to enjoy stable power use right.Grid companies,investors,and users are in a cooperative relationships under the interests of compromise;in the stage of operation and maintenance,grid companies and micro-grid operators participate in operational decision-making,and the government formulates environmental protection policies.Therefore,the grid companies dispatch power,and the operators have project operation rights,and users have the power use right enforced by law.Grid companies and operators are leaders and followers under government environmental policy constraints.(2)A bi-level programming model with optimal micro-grid planning and optimal reliability of grid company is established,combining electrical engineering,mathematical models and management science.And it is a great innovation to research its social system from its technical system of micro-grid.The study found that in the stage of micro-grid planning,the main cooperation risks are the grid company's monopoly on the power market,the opportunism and free-riding of investors,and the joint behavior of grid companies and investors to rip the users.In order to prevent risks,the energy storage system of the micro-grid is used as the reserve capacity of the grid company for comprehensive dispatching,improving the reliability of the entire grid,strengthening cooperation between the two parties,and reducing risks.Based on this idea,the bi-level programming model is raised that the optimal investment of micro-grid is proposed as the upper-level leadership problem,and the reliability of grid company optimization as the lower-level following problem.The bi-level programming model can satisfy the benefits maximization of one level while not harming the interest of the other level,strengthening the close cooperation between the two parties.(3)A three-party cooperative game model of grid companies,investors and users is established,taking the user's consumer surplus as the benefit of the cooperative alliance for calculation.During the development and construction the spirit of users' participation is fully implemented,and discourse power on the demand side is paid great attention,both of which are the innovations of the academic thinking.After fieldwork on some micro-grid projects in China,it was found that in the stage of the development and construction,grid companies and investors may bargain because of“online” problems,or even rip off;investors may cut corners and moral hazard may occur during the construction process;micro-grid investors and Grid companies may also jointly increase the construction costs and pass them on to the users.Uneven distribution of income in cooperation leads to increased risks.In order to prevent risks,it is necessary to build a cooperation game between grid companies,micro-grid investors and the users,allocate cooperative income,and formulate government economic incentives and electricity price supervision according to the development and construction costs of grid companies and micro-grids to protect the effectiveness of the power market.(4)It is a significant innovative research to establish an optimal bi-level programming model for maximizing social welfare and optimizing micro-grid operations,considering the carbon emission policy to study the environmental value of micro-grid projects.It is found in the research that in the stage of micro-grid operation and maintenance,the cooperation risks include the act of the moral hazard by the operators to deceive the renewable energy subsidies,the act of the consign-agent to reduce the quality of the power supply service to the users.Operators' blindly pursuing their own interests will create cooperation risks,affecting social welfare and project development performance.In order to prevent cooperation risks,the bi-level programming model should be established,in which social welfare and grid optimal scheduling are regarded as upper-level leadership problems,and the optimal operation of micro-grid as a lower-level follow-up problems,forcing the micro-grid operators to improve the use of renewable energy to earn a reasonable profit under the national energy conservation and emission reduction policies.This paper has important academic value,as follows:(1)By stakeholder theory,economics of transaction cost,resource-based theory and social technology system school,the theoretical results of micro-grid project development cooperation risk are established;(2)The cooperation risk prevention model between micro-grid investors and grid companies is established in the stage of micro-grid planning,providing a theoretical reference for the cooperation risk issues of other high-tech project investments;(3)The game model of three cooperative parties,which are the grid company,micro-grid investors and the users,is established in the stage of micro-grid development and construction,providing the theoretical basis for cooperation risk prevention for the construction of engineering projects involving many stakeholders;(4)A bi-level programming model for the cooperation risk prevention in the micro-grid project operation and maintenance is established,providing research reference for other similar planning and management issues with two levels of system.This paper is also of strong application and practical significance,as follows:(1)A cooperative risk prevention mechanism for the cooperative development of micro-grid projects is built up;(2)For the development of micro-grid projects in China,the decision-making reference models are presented for the micro-grid investors' investment decision-making,micro-grid grid connection power dispatching and the government economic incentives in power market etc.;(3)The policies and regulations involved in micro-grid participation in the power market are improved,and the carbon trading market is promoted. |
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