| "30·60" dual-carbon target has further improved China’s efforts in its national independent contributions and put forward new requirements for high-quality energy development in 2020.Since then,building a new power system with a high proportion of renewable energy has become the only way to achieve the“30·60”dual carbon goal.However,on the way to a new form of power system with a high proportion of renewable energy,many issues need to be solved urgently in management decision-making,among which the most prominent are the related issues of large-scale renewable energy consumption.As the penetration rate of renewable energy increases,the power system will face greater volatility and supply uncertainty.To avoid wind and solar abandonment,improving the flexibility of the system is the most direct and effective solution.Therefore,researching,establishing,and complementing the medium and long-term power planning model to improve the flexibility of the system,promote the consumption of renewable energy,and explore the optimized development path of the power industry will help to provide scientific management decision-making basis for the energy regulatory department and reduce ineffective investment.It has great reference value for the“14th Five-Year Plan”and even the long-term plan for 2035 as well.Based on this,this paper took the "safety,economy,and low-carbon" ternary goal as the optimization direction based on the energy "impossible triangle" theory firstly.At the time,the three research aspects of medium and long-term power demand forecasting model based on the combination forecast,power resource technical and economic analysis and growth potential research based on the system cost,and the power planning model coordinated supply and demand resources were combined to build a research system of high-proportion renewable energy power planning oriented to system flexibility.Secondly,by constructing an electricity consumption forecasting model based on the MLR-ANN(multiple regression and artificial neural network coupling)and an analysis model of electric power economic growth regular pattern based on the Gompertz curve,System LCOE(system Levelized cost of power generation)technical and economic analysis model and power resource cost downtrend model based on the two-factor learning curve,and model of high-proportion renewable energy power planning model oriented to system flexibility,to establish a new medium and long-term power planning thinking paradigm.Then,this paper also applied the constructed model to analyze the potential development path of China’s power industry from 2021 to 2035 under different policy scenarios and used the power system operation simulation method to verify the reliability of the planning scheme.Finally,fair and reasonable policy recommendations to the optimization path were put forward to provide suggestions for the high-quality development of China’s energy.Specifically,the main research content and conclusions of this paper include the following aspects:(1)System flexibility and basic theoretical research related to medium and long-term power planning.In this section,this paper took the "safety,economy,and low-carbon" as the optimization direction based on the energy "impossible triangle" theory,explained the optimization ideas for the research of high-proportion renewable energy power planning oriented to system flexibility firstly.Then,formed the overall idea of high-proportion renewable energy power planning research system based on the optimization idea from the three aspects of medium and long-term power demand forecast model research based on the combination forecast,power resource technical-economic analysis and growth potential research based on the system cost,and the power planning model coordinated supply and demand resources research.(2)Analysis of the development status of the power industry.In this section,this paper focused on combing and analyzing the changes in the main structure of China’s power industry in the past 20 years in terms of power supply structure,inter-provincial and cross-regional transmission lines,and electricity consumption,as well as the economy of power generation technology,the line loss,plant power consumption rate,coal consumption,and the scale of demand response that related to the evolution trend of cost efficiency,which impacted the parameters’ setting to support the construction of a high-proportion renewable energy power planning model oriented to system flexibility and the exploration of optimized paths for the power industry.(3)Research on the medium and long-term power demand forecasting model based on the combination forecast.In this section,this paper analyzed the relevant factors that cause the changes in the electricity consumption of the whole society firstly.Based on the MLR model,the correlation analysis was carried out,and the significant influencing variables that affected the changes in the electricity consumption of the whole society were extracted.And through the time series ANN model and the least square method,the future values of the significant influencing variables were predicted respectively.Secondly,through the construction of an electricity consumption prediction model for the whole society based on the MLR-ANN,two sets of data were used to predict the electricity consumption of the whole society in China from 2021 to 2035.Then,analyzed and summarized the electricity economic development regular pattern of major developed countries based on the Gompertz curve model,and studied the issue of the "turning point"of electricity consumption.Finally,the results of China’s electricity demand forecast by authoritative research institutions were integrated.Combined with the conclusions of the study of medium and long-term electricity economic development regular pattern,the results of the electricity consumption forecasting model based on the MLR-ANN were verified.The results showed that the "MLR+least squares+ANN" prediction model constructed has high prediction accuracy and reliable prediction results.(4)Technical economic analysis and growth potential research of power resources based on the system cost.In this section,the technical-economic analysis model based on the system LCOE and the power resource cost decline model based on the two-factor learning curve were constructed respectively firstly,which supplemented the missing of the flexibility and demand-side resources in the existing technical cost analysis research.Then,used the model to analyze the competitiveness of different power resources from 2021 to 2035 by simulating the power market environment.Finally,analyzed the conclusions of the competitiveness and development potential of different power resources,to contributes to set up a more objective domain of definition to the model.(5)Research on the power planning model coordinated supply and demand resources.In this section,this paper discussed the necessity that the medium and long-term planning perspective needs to fully consider the requirements of system flexibility to adapt to the new form of the high-proportion renewable energy power system firstly based on the basic principles of power planning and analysis of the characteristics of the new form of the high-proportion renewable energy power system.Secondly,used the medium and long-term power planning model as an entry point,added the power industry’s carbon peaking constraints and flexibility balance constraints for optimization to construct a new power planning model based on the coordination of resources on both sides of the supply and demand.At the same time,superimposing the sub-models interaction further to form a high-proportion renewable energy power planning model oriented to system flexibility.Then,set scenarios of BAU,strengthened policy,"carbon neutral",and 1.5℃ together with the basic conclusions drawn from the constructed models above to simulate and analyze the national-level and local regional power planning schemes under different policy scenarios from 2021 to 2035,and to explore the optimized development path of China’s power industry from 2021 to 2035 as well.Finally,a running simulation was used to further verify the validity of the model.The results showed that the planning scheme presented by the planning model established in this paper can meet various constraints and is an optimization result.(6)Policy recommendations.In this section,relevant policy recommendations to ensure the implementation of optimized paths were put forward from multiple aspects including the power supply side,the grid side,and the demand side.At the same time,this paper also discussed the fair transformation issues caused by the optimized path and put forward related policy recommendations as well. |
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