The Empirical Study On The Relationship Between Energy And Economic Development In China

Abstract:Energy plays an important role in the social progress and economic development. Any country cannot do without energy. Since the reform and opening up, the rapid economic growth has attracted the world people's attention. With the high-speed growth of the domestic economy, China's energy consumption also continues to grow rapidly. Therefore, more and more people care for the relationship between energy and economic development. Under this background, in order to provide reasonable references for China's energy policy and developing plans of national economy, we will study relationship between energy and economic development in China. The main research contents and results are as follows.(1) To study the relationship between energy consumption and economic development, the affecting factors of energy consumption are firstly analyzed. A simultaneous equation model for affecting factors of energy consumption was established. And then this model was identified and analyzed. Finally the model parameters were respectively estimated by the use of two-stage least squares (2SLS), three-stage least squares (3SLS) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methods. Considering various factors will also influence each other, we introduced the path analysis, which means a certain factor affects energy consumption by the action of the other factors. So in this paper the affecting factors of energy consumption are further studied by path analysis.(2) Because the economic development has a great significance for the progress and development of the society, the reasonable prediction of the economic development is conducive to formulate plans of national economy and guide economic activity. And it can also provide important bases for the nation to adjust the industrial structure and to establish corresponding energy policy. So China's GDP is predicted by using quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm and BP neural network. (3) The relationship between China's total energy consumption and GDP, the relationship between the growth rate of energy consumption and GDP and the relationship between energy consumption and per capita GDP were all analyzed by using ADF unit root test, cointegration test, Grainger causality test, error correction model, correlation analysis and so on. Finally, decoupling relationship between the economic development and energy consumption was studied. The result shows that the linear correlation coefficient between total energy consumption and GDP is0.9939from1978to2011, which means a significantly positive correlation between them. The growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of GDP keep the same pace in changes.When the growth rate of GDP is increasing, the number of growth rate of energy consumption usually becomes larger. And there is a long-term stable relationship between China total energy consumption and per capita GDP. There are bidirectional causality relationship between total energy consumption and per capita GDP by Granger causality test. China's energy consumption and GDP are in the relatively decoupling state. The decoupling index between the total energy consumption and economic development is consistent with the decoupling index between coal, oil and economic development. And the total decoupling index shows a downward trend.(4) The concepts of energy efficiency and energy economic efficiency were explained. The annual energy economic efficiency in the studied years and the energy economic efficiency in the provinces and cities of China were calculated by using generalized C-D function and DEA model. Some policy recommendations were put forward based on the above conclusions.(5) Using the data of energy demand and its influencing factors to establish the vector auto-regression (VAR) model. This paper applies impulse response function and variance analysis to portray the dynamic correlations between energy demand and its influencing factors. Using the improved grey target decision, differential and difference Verhulst models to build the forecasting model of energy demand.(6) Energy prices have linked energy with economic development like a bridge. This paper used wavelet analysis, particle swarm optimization (PSO), BP neural network and grey Bernoulli model (NGBM) to forecast energy prices.(7) Economic development needs to consume energy. And the energy consumption will inevitably have a negative impact on the environment. In this paper, the relationship between energy consumption and environmental pollution were analyzed by using the grey correlation model. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the variation coefficient and grey relational analysis methods to analyze impacts of different types of energy consumption on CO2emissions in China. In order to promote the social development and protect the environment against pollutions, some suggestions were proposed later in the7th chapter.(8) In order to promote the sustainable development of energy and economy, the coordinated development between energy and economic systems is studied based on principal component analysis, the general coupling coordination model, grey coupling coordination model and the entropy change equation. According to the coordination coefficient, the corresponding policy recommendations are given.