Leakage Of Water Supply Pipe Network Prediction And Evaluation Of Health

Urban water supply is the lifeblood of the city. It is essential material basis for people's lves and the development of production construction. It has become the restrictive fators of the urban sustainable development and construction and also directly related to the social stability and economic development.Pipeline leakage has been to the water pipes of water supply enterprises in our country are facing a big problem, With the increasingly serious water shortage, water restrictions and rising costs of nervous energy, the leakage of urban water distribution network and its control has become an important topic in the industry.In this paper, based on information collected at home and abroad, all the factors conducted the leakage of the pipeline had been comprehensively and detailed analysis, and make certain the factors of affecting the normal operation of the pipeline, and then give effective measures against those factors, we offer technical advice for watter supply company, and provide a scientific basis and theoretical support to improve the efficiency of the leakage detection.Based on the forcast characteristics of the leakage of the pipeline , we the establishment of the seasonal exponential smoothing model, gray theory model and BP neural network model, seperately applied to predict the number of pipe fittings, the interval of pipe lekage, as well as the safe use time of the pipelines. Using those models, we could quantitatively estiamte the extent and the frequancy of the pipeline leakage , as well as the safe using time of the pipelins. results show that the prediction accuracy can be controlled within 10% and then could meet the forecast accuracy requirements.Water supply pipeline running their own status and pipeline tubes, water pressure, thickness of covering soil, where the road grade, pipe age, temperature and other factors. Comprehensive analysis of the actual situation, in accordance with the feasibility of access to data relevant factors to select the use of gray relational grade network on evaluation of health of pipeline, and make the priority of the maintenance of pipelines based on it. So water supply enterprises can improve efficiency and save substantial human and material resources.