Research On The Coupling Mechanism Of Safety Risks For Air Traffic Control

The aviation transportation is under rapid development, the air traffic flow has been growing constantly and environment in airspace has become increasingly complicated. As safety has always been the highest priority for aviation, it puts forward higher requirements to air traffic control (ATC), making the service and security capacity of air traffic control of China a more prominent bottleneck.So,if the abilities of safeguarding ATC safety can not be improved effectivelymore and more civil aviation accidents and incidents will take place and appear.What the ATC industry requires in risk management now has developed from "post-flight processing" to the period of prevention in advance ",from the stage of management by experience to systematic safety risk management. Because the ATC system involves the aspects of person,hardware,environment and management, the source of risk has been increasing and the forming process of risk has become increasingly complicated.So, the research on the coupling mechanism of ATC safety risk can help to get a further understanding of the whole dynamic process of how the coupling risk have effect on ATC safety and reveal the relevant laws of coupling risk.So that, the whole ATC safety risk can be controlled and managed better,making the research of important practical significance.This dissertation employs the theories and methods of modern risk management, safety science, complexity science,system theory,fault diagnosis theory and econometrics,includes the contents of academic frontiers from many subjects and has a significant research value.The whole dissertation is composed of 7 parts as follows:Chapter 1 explains the research background and the source of the solected topic, makes clear the contents and the methods of the research based on the research review of home and abroad.Chapter 2 details the connotation and feature of ATC safety risk, and based on this,defines the connotation of ATC safety risk coupling and analyzes the key factors of it.Then this dissertation puts forward the principles of risk coherence,risk volatility and principles of the ATC system brittleness.The aim is to provide theoretical reference for the systematic analysis of ATC safety risk coupling mechanism and decoupling method.Chapter 3 mainly studys the coupling law of ATC safety risk,epurates the characteristics of ATC safety risk coupling based on the classification of ATC safety risk coupling, then makes a thorough analysis on the ATC safety risk factors and analyzes the coupling process of ATC safety risk in detail, and then applies the theory and method of system dynamics to study the causation of the interactions among the many factors of ATC safety risk for the first time and describes the risk flow in the process of ATC safety risk coupling in mathematical language.Chapter 4—explores the cause of ATC safety risk, tests the hypothesis the dissertation proposed through designing the questionnaire of ATC safety risk and testing validity and reliability of the questionnaire and indicates the essential reason that cause the main ATC safety risk factors.Chapter 5 establishes the N-K model of ATC safety risk coupling based on complicated net for the first time after comparing the many related risk models, and conducts a confirmatory analysis according to the unsafe events of ATC in resent ten years.Chapter 6 designs the management strategies of ATC safety coupling risk, proposes the three ATC safety coupling risk management strategies of isolation method,peak shifting method and anti-brittle law for the first time based on the analysis of the coupling process of ATC safety risk and the theory of decoupling of ATC safety coupling risk.Chapter 7 makes a summary and demonstrates the future prospect of further study on the ATC safety risk coupling mechanism and decoupling method.