Response Of Ecosystem Service To Climate And Land Use And Scenario Simulation In Beijing

As an important bridge connecting natural ecosystems and human society,ecosystem service has become a research hotspot and frontier field in geography,urban ecology,landscape ecology and other disciplines.Therefore,studying the sustainable development of cities from the perspective of ecosystem services can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of urban ecosystems.This paper firstly analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of water supply,carbon storage,soil conservation,water purification,food provision and leisure services in Beijing from 2000 to 2015 using the In VEST model.Secondly,it analyzes the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of the trade-off relationships and synergic relationships between 6 kinds of ecosystem services using correlation analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis.Then,it analyzes the spatial differentiation characteristics and laws of the impact of climate factors and land use factors on the ecosystem service using geographic detectors and mixed geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model.Finally,by the coupling hierarchical framework of Geo SOS-FLUS and In VEST models,it develops 4 scenarios of natural development,sustainable development,rapid development and low-speed development,simulates the spatial pattern of land use under the 4 scenarios in Beijing in 2030,2045 and 2060,evaluates the 6 kinds of ecosystem services and their trade-off relationships under different scenarios and puts forward several relevant countermeasures and suggestions.The conclusions of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2015,the water provision,carbon storage and leisure services in Beijing all showed an upward trend and the soil conservation,water purification and food provision services showed a downward trend and the integrated ecosystem service showed an upward trend.The water supply,carbon storage,soil conservation service and integrated ecosystem service presented a spatial distribution characteristic of“high in northwest mountainous areas and low in southeast plain areas”.The water purification and food provision service presented a spatial distribution characteristic of“high in southeast plains and low in northwest mountainous areas”.The leisure services presented a spatial distribution characteristic of“high north areas and low in south areas”.(2)From 2000 to 2015,there were strong synergic relationships among water supply,carbon storage,soil conservation and leisure service in Beijing while the food provision and water purification service were in trade-off relationships with the other four services.Specifically,the synergic relationships of water supply and carbon storage,water supply and soil conservation,carbon storage and soil conservation,water supply and leisure services,carbon storage and leisure services as well as soil conservation and leisure services were mainly distributed in ecological conservation development areas;while the trade-off relationships of water supply and leisure services,soil conservation and leisure services,as well as carbon storage-leisure services were mainly distributed in new urban development areas and ecological conservation development areas.(3)As for the characteristics of land use,the proportion of construction land area was the leading factor of water supply,water quality purification and leisure services.Among them,the proportion of construction land area had the greatest impact in ecological conservation development areas and new urban development areas.The proportion of woodland area,slope and proportion of farmland area were the leading factors of carbon storage services,soil conservation and food provision services,respectively.Among them,the percentage of forest land area had the greatest impact in the southwest mountainous area of Beijing,while proportion of farmland area had the greatest impact in Yanqing County and Pinggu District.(4)This paper studied the response characteristics of ecosystem service to climate and land use factors in Beijing and evaluated the ecosystem service under future urban development scenario on this basis.The comprehensive ecosystem service of Beijing was the highest level under the sustainable development scenario and was the lowest under the natural development and rapid development scenario.The trade-off relationships of water supply and water purification,soil conservation and water purification,water purification and leisure services,soil conservation and food provision were weaker under the low-speed development and sustainable development scenarios and were stronger under the rapid development scenario.(5)The countermeasures and suggestions for ecosystem management are put forward at the end of this paper.Beijing should refer to the sustainable development scenario and control the area of construction land within 2983.73 km~2,2982.89 km~2 and 2987.75 km~2 in 2030,2045 and 2060,respectively.The ecological conservation development zone should strictly control the development activities of the ecological red line area and protect the various natural ecosystems in the area.The new urban development zone should focus on the measures of reducing the proportion of construction land and strengthening the protection of basic farmland.The capital functional core area and urban function development areas should strictly control the scale of urban construction land and focus on optimizing land use and landscape structure.