Complexity And Management Control Research For Multi-channel Supply Chains Under Carbon Reduction Policy

With the rising of anti-globalization,breakage of international industrial chain,the evolution of international economy and politics,these situations make supply chain ecology of enterprises changes largely.Supply chain enterprises facing major challenge and greater demands for production and operation.Under the low-carbon background,supply chain management,operation and risk control have become most important issues of enterprises operation and development.Governments are actively adopting countermeasures and strategies according to national conditions to tackle the global environmental degradation and bear the obligations and responsibilities of protecting global ecology.The implementation and improvement of carbon emission reduction policies will have a profound impact on the relevant multi-channel supply chains(MCSC).Based on game theory,non-linear theory and dynamic economic expectation theory,the complex dynamic characteristics of MCSC under carbon emission reduction policies during long-term dynamic game are analyzed through computational experiments.The main innovations and conclusions are as follows:1.The characteristics and equilibrium strategy of the triple channel supply chain(TCSC)game under the carbon subsidy policy is studied.The order decision mechanism and complex dynamic characteristics for manufacturers and dual-channel retailers(DCR)are discussed under three different power structures including:simultaneous decision-making,manufacturer-led market and retailer-led market.Manufacturers-led supply chain system is found to be more stable under double lowcarbon subsidies.The power structure of the market should be considered by government to decide the appropriate subsidy rate.Over-adjustment of the supply order quantity in the manufacturer's direct sales channel and the online channel of the DCR will lead to large periodic fluctuations,even bifurcation and chaos,causing the profit loss in supply chain member.The implementation of delayed feedback control can effectively stabilize system in periodic bifurcation or chaos.2.The complexity of the MCSC of manufacturers with government low-carbon subsidy and consumers under the cap-and-trade regulation are discussed based on impact analysis of low-carbon policies.A TCSC dynamic game model of government subsidies under the cap-and-trade regulation is established.The impacts of adjustment parameters of order quantity,consumers' low-carbon preferences(LCP)and the adjustment strategy of government subsidies on system stability and complexity are studied under centralized and decentralized decision-making of online and offline channels in DCR.Through analyzing chaotic characteristics of Stackelberg evolutionary game of the MCSC,it is found that over-adjustment of consumers' LCP and government subsidy magnitude will lead to instability of system and loss of profits.After multi-period dynamic game,the stability and profit under decentralized decisionmaking are better with government subsidies.Control measures and appropriate delay decision can increase the stability of the system and the profit of the players.3.The dynamic game of MCSC with low-carbon environment is studied under different carbon emission reduction polices.A practicable long-term multi-stage dynamic Stackelberg game model for TCSC is constructed under three situations.There are without cap-and-trade regulation,grandfathering approach based on cap-and-trade regulation,and the benchmarking approach based on cap-and-trade regulation.The complexity and stability of changes in order quantity of low-carbon product,carbon emission reduction and low-carbon promotion are investigated.The total carbon emissions of production,delivery and inventory process in supply chain and the variations of order quantity,profit,carbon emission,and social welfare under various channels are discussed.The computational experiments indicated that the benchmarking approach can increase the total profits and social welfare of whole supply chain and moderately lower total carbon emissions by maintaining stability of system during long-term multi-stage game.4.Considering the trends of the carbon tax and online retail market,a comparative study on the order quantity strategy of MCSC under two carbon tax policies are conducted.A quadruple-channel supply chain is constructed under the flat and the progressive carbon tax regulations.The complexity characteristic under heterogeneous expectations of channel and the effects of consumers' dual preferences and free riding on the system complexity,profit,carbon emission and social welfare are studied.The results showed that over adjustments of consumers' preference and free riding result in the instability of order quantity system of supply chain.Under progressive tax regulation,the chaotification and bifurcation of order quantity system can be delayed or prevented and the effect of chaos control is even sounder.This dissertation expands the application scenarios of complexity theory,and has good theoretical and practical value.