Research On Risk Assessment Of Chemical Industry Park

In view of the characteristics of more dangerous,strong domino effect of accidents and difficulties in safety management of chemical industry park,a risk assessment index system for chemical industry park is established,and puts forward a more scientific and reasonable method to confirm weight and risk assessment.A domino effect model based on failure consequence,dynamic three-dimensional risk field model and cooperative management model of chemical industrial park based on HUB and GIS are established,which provide a new idea for risk assessment of chemical industrial park.(1)Based on the characteristics of chemical industry park,field investigation and consulting experts,the risks of chemical industry park are analyzed.The second-level indicators of risk assessment of chemical industry park are constructed from enterprise safety situation,park safety planning,emergency rescue and safety management.The second-level indicators are divided,including 13 third-level indicators and 48 fourth-level indicators.The index system is more objective and reasonable,reflecting the characteristics of chemical industry park in all directions.(2)The advantages and disadvantages of subjective weighting methods and objective weighting methods are discussed,and the uncertainty of the assessment conclusions obtained by the Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process is pointed out.Based on this,the idea of fuzzy mathematics is introduced,the interval weight set is considered as interval membership set,then the FIAHP is proposed from the perspectives of certainty and uncertainty of the system by the interval membership,and used to deal with the problem of uncertainty when the weights are interval.(3)According to the characteristics of the risk of chemical industry park,the risk grade of risk assessment index of chemical industry park is confirmed;the concepts of fuzzy mathematics and set pair analysis theory are discussed,the method of IDO connection degree based on the trigonometric function change is analyzed.Making full use of the advantages of fuzzy mathematics and set pair analysis,Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis(FSPA)is proposed.In view of the lack integrity of the maximum membership degree,Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis based on the comprehensive index is proposed,the membership degree of chemical industry park is analyzed in general,the results are more reasonable and reliable.(4)In view of the characteristics of different risks at different times of chemical industry park,the MARKOV process is introduced and coupled by FSPA,and the FSPA-MARKOV model is proposed,which uses the transition probability and ergodicity of the MARKOV chain to forecast the risks of chemical industry park,the results are more scientific and reasonable.(5)According to the characteristics of the accident of chemical industry park,the model of domino accident is analyzed,and the advantages and disadvantages of the existing domino effect methods are discussed.For lack of research on the failure consequence of damage to objects by debris,a domino effect model based on failure consequence is established from the target physical failure caused by debris impact and the fire and explosion accident caused by temperature of debris impact,and the analysis process is given.(6)The law of superposition of three-dimensional risk field of chemical industry park is analyzed from the superposition of two point-like risk sources and the superposition of two linear risk sources.Based on this,time factor is introduced to propose a dynamic three-dimensional risk model of chemical industry park from point-like risk sources and linear risk sources.The model fully considers various types of safety protection facilities,environmental factors,and the impact of changes in risk levels over time on personal risk.This model provides a new direction for the research of risk field of chemical industry park,and enhances the three-dimensional risk field theory from dynamic perspective.(7)In view of the problems existing in safety management of chemical industry park,the cooperative management mode of chemical industry park based on HUB and GIS is established from cooperation of safety management organizations,cooperation of safety management methods and cooperation of safety management informations.The safety management mode optimizes various safety management methods and emergency resources,and achieves the purpose of cooperative safety management of chemical industry park.