Dynamics Evolution Of Man-Land System And Policy Orientation Based On PAIC Model

Human-land relationship coupled with evolution of water resources is one of the restrictions under the geography of the most important direction.Under the background of global change and its natural structure and socio-economic structural changes caused by increasing water demand and use of land resources,contradictions between land and water resources as the natural resources of society survival and the development have cause the attention of the relevant social organizations and international academic community to coordinate the relationship through the development of appropriate policies and measures.Due to shortage of water resources and extremely fragile ecological environment in arid areas,the contradictory between land and water resources utilization become more prominent,therefore,how to get a deeper understanding of dynamic mechanisms coupling elements of land and water resources and policies evolution in arid regions during a certain time scales,as well as the feedback between social awareness and policy orientations in human-land evolution system,is need to be solved as an important scientific issues in this research field as to achieve sustainable development in the process of matching comprehensive policy orientations in arid regions.Intra-mountain lake basins such as the Ejina in northern Inner Mongolia are considered to be excellent archives that monitor environmental and climate changes through time as they react very sensitively to pulses,affecting the hydrologic budget of the basin.We selected the year 1962 to 2012 as a time scale of 50 years and constructed integrated human-land system in typical arid region by PAIC(Policy-Arable landIrrigation Water-Community Sensitivity)conceptual model,focusing on arable land,irrigation water,combined land and water policies and awareness of social behavior.Through the application of "social sensitivity" of the concept,we analyze how the setting of the social sense and interrelated policy orientation processes at specific sites have been modulating the sustainable development of local human-land system under the constraints of water resource,thus affecting the interpretation and supporting a quantitative way for the selection of policies.The overall content and conclusions of this dissertation could be concluded as following:1)Based on the analysis of land cover changes and as a result of development processes,we developed a framework to analyze the impact of land use policies on arable land changes in the Ejina basin in response to human and climate variability.Land use policies had great impact on hydrological environment.We process the land classification in the study area based on remote sensing and related land use data.The results showed that the area of arable land in the past 50 years undergoing a rapid growth,increasing from 7.8 square kilometers to 65.3 square kilometers and Moran’s I increased from 0.38 to 0.47,showing an obviously spacial agglomeration pattern.The analysis helps disentangle the patterns identified in maps and provides useful insights for policy makers to assist in the monitoring of the implementation of existing policies and we emphasizes the assumption that nonclimatic factors of a spatial complex area can overwrite the climate signals of a record more intensively than assumed.2)Based on land use types,we conducted Budyko method of water balance to calculate actual evapotransporation and analyze water balance in recent years in Ejina Basin and apply ETWatch modeling to compare the modelling validation.We detect and explore the dynamics of water balance change over past periods by quantitative models and the results showed that average annual rainfall is 34.84mm,but only 2.83mm contribute to the annual runoff,91.8%of the precipitation are surface evaporation.In order to alleviate the shortage of surface water resources Ejina Region,it is necessary to improve the implementation of price control and water resources management policy combination to meet the demand for irrigation water and arable production as to balance the maintenance of the ecological environment in arid areas.3)A generic conceptual modelling framework has been put forward which posits a novel construct,a composite Community Sensitivity state variable,as the crucial driver of behavioral response in the human system.Our model can be utilized to assess the effectiveness of land use and water-saving policies in an area and aid in helpful in monitoring the combination of existing policies.Based on community sensitivity in human-land system,we calculate community sensitivity and using an idealized sketch showing a hypothetical traj ectory over time of the community sensitivity state variable.And then analyze dynamics taking community sensitivity to show the interaction of human-land System to coordinate land use and water policies and its long-run status.The results showed that different combination of policies will result in different land production and water-saving development.In order to coordinate production and environmental protection,it is necessary to emphasizes policy preferences and community sensitivity as factors in future policy orientations.When community sensitivity above zero or showing an increasing trend,governments should take more actions and prefer water policies to maintain the environment sustainable development.A sharp decline in community sensitivity levels or in the case below zero would be observable in this phase driven by increasing economic prosperity and an aggressive rate of environmental modification to suit development needs.The proposition in this paper is that as the Sensitivity state variable displays an upward or downward shift,there will be a corresponding observable shift in a behavioral Response function.It is hypothesized that as Sensitivity increases,behavior and management decisions will tend towards reducing the community’s impact on the basin’s hydrological signature.Conversely,lower sensitivity rates will be associated with more aggressive behavioral responses that tend towards manipulating available water resources to the community’s need.To achieve the effectiveness of policy choice behavior and through rational combination of land and water policies,should be the appropriate strategy that gives protection to the environment.This doctoral dissertation is embedded into and analyzes the mechanism of land use policies and water resource policies on Man-land system by means of conceptual model and statistical methods.The need to consider the quantity of irrigation water resources can impact potential land uses and land management practices,while water availability is a pre-requisite for land uses requiring irrigation.Land use and land management changes impact on water resources for example through changes in catchment yields,infiltration rates.A generic conceptual modelling framework has been put forward which posits a novel construct,a composite Community Sensitivity state variable,as the crucial driver of behavioral response in the human system,providing quantitative evaluation methods and theoretical support of land planning and the process of water-saving agriculture policy options.