| In the stage of rapid urbanization development,China is facing with huge challenges under the demand of urban space expansion and necessity of sustainable development.However,the simulation and analysis of land-use change process is helpful to understand the driving mechanism of urban development,insight the future direction of urban development,achieve fine management of urban development,and improve the quality of urban development.Vector CA(Cellular Automata)model has the advantage of stronge somputing power,simple modeling principle,and objectivity and accuracy of urban spatial structure expression,which has been widely used to simulate land-use changes.However,the existing vector CA model ignores the fact that urban land-use change is driven by the regional coordination of urban agglomeration,city and parcel,and there are some problems such as “single-level”,“separation level” and “homogeneous plain hypothesis”.Therefore,the following issuses need to be explored:(1)How to build a multi-hierarchy driving system of land-use change?(2)How to explore the stratified heterogeneity and its mechanism within the multi-hiererchy system?(3)How to mine the multi-hierachy land-use transition rules under regional coorperation? And others.The research and solution of these issuses are expected to build an all-round,overall-process and wholesystem vector CA model to provide scientific decision support for urban spatial planning.In view of the above problems,this study takes “vector CA system construction”-“stratified heterogeneity analysis”-“transition rule acquisition”-“multi-hierarchy vector CA modelling” as the main research line.On the basis of in-depth analysis of the driving hierarchies of urban spatial change,the vector CA model structure describing urban evolution was dynamically abstract expressed by using three elements of point,line and surface.Applying adaptive-kernel density estimation method and other methods,the stratified heterogenity of structure,fuction and level within multi-hierarchy driving system were identified.Taking consideration of the hierarchy regional coordination and stratified heterogenity,the multi-hierechy transition rules were mined to construct a multihierarchy vector CA model.The main research contents and conclusion are as follows:(1)Estabilishment of multi-hierarchy vector CA system under regional cooperationAmining at the problems of “single-level” and “separation level” of traditional vector CA model,and based on the fact that the urban land-use change is driven by multihierarchy coordination,this study determined the “reginal-city(city-district-unit)-parcel”multi-hierarchy system of land-use change.The driving units and elements within the driving system were abstracted expressed by three elements of point,line and surface,which is combined with graphy theory to construct a multi-hierarchy vector CA model to display the driving process of lan-use change.Bsed on the horizontal connectivity and vertical transitivity of this driving system,we explored the driving mechanism of landuse change within the multi-hierarchy CA structure.(2)Quantitative expression of stratified heterogenity of structure,level and function within multi-hierarchy CA systemAiming at the problem of “homogeneous plain hypothesis”,by using urban comprehensive spatial development index and spatial gravity model and considering the stratified heterogenity of driving structure,the dynamic driving forces between horizontal cell units within the structure were calculated and the differential decomposition process of those driving forces between vertical hierarchies were quantified.Combining with wavelet method and kernel density estimation metod,we proposed an adaptive-kernel density estimation metod considering the spatial local characteristics.Based on the spatial heterogeneity of urban spatial development level,the proposed adaptive-kernel density estimation metod was applied to effectively divide the urban space into four different development level regions,namely,urban centers,inner urban-rural fringes,outer urbanrural fringes and rural hinterland.Using geospatial analysis method,this paper combined the urban major fuction zones and ecological function zones to analyze the spatial heterogenity of urban spatial fuction positioning,and formulated the priority of urban spatial development.(3)Multi-hierarchy vector CA modeling considering stratified heterogenity and hierarchy coordinationConsidering the stratified heterogenity of horizontal driving forces and vertical decomposition rules within the multi-heirarchy driving structure,the multi-heirarchy spatial driving effect of each parcel was obtained;considering the heterogenity of spatial structure and spatial fuction positioning of the neighborhood of each parcel,we designed an effect function of three-dimensional neighborhood;considering the heterogenity of land-use transition rules in different development level regions,the initial land-use transition probabilities of each regions were calculated by using Markov-Chain;finally,coupling multi-hierarchy spatial driving effect,neighborhood effect and partition initial transition probability,the multi-hierarchy land-use transition rules under cooperation were constructued,which were applied to establish a multi-hierarchy vector CA model considering stratified heterogeneity.(4)Land-use change simulation and multi-scenario prediction in Jiangyin CityJiangyin City in Yangtze River Delta region was selected as the research area to simulate the land-use changes from 2012 to 2017,which was applied to compare with the actual data by using OA(Overall Accuracy),Kappa and Fo M(Figure of Merit).The comparision and analysis was certificated that the model is effective and applicable.In addition,the analysis of simulation indicated that Jiangyin City is a self-developed city,whose development was mainly drived by inner factors(the driving of district regional hierarchy,unit regional hierarchy and parcel regional hierarchy)and supplemented by external factors(the driving of urban agglomeration regional hierarchy and city regional hierarchy).By predicting and analyzing the development trend of Jiangyin City in the next 10 years inder six different expansion modes,this paper proposed that in order to construct the spatial pattern of “the northern riverside agglomeration area and the southern ecological open area”,it is necessary to implement the expansion modes “fillingspreading-jumping” or “filling-jumping-spreading” in the next years. |
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