| Building a maritime power is an inevitable choice to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese.The report of the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)first proposed the strategy of maritime power;the report of the 19 th National Congress of the CPC further proposed that China should adhere to the overall planning of land and sea and accelerate the construction of a maritime power.General Secretary Xi Jinping also gave a profound explanation on the maritime power,emphasizing the necessity to improve the development of marine resources and promote the transformation of marine economy to high quality and efficiency type;to protect the marine ecological environment and promote the transformation of marine development modes to a recycling type;to develop marine science and technology(S&T)and promote the transformation of marine technology to an innovation-led type.It can be seen that the marine economy,marine S&T and the marine environment are the core components within marine power strategy,and their changes determine the pace and construction of the marine power strategy.So far,academia has conducted a lot of discussions on the topic of maritime power.Related research mainly starts from a single subject or theoretical perspective,and analyzes a certain aspect of maritime power,ignoring the multi-dimensional connotation of maritime power and its complex interaction mechanism.In addition,for the multidimensional complexity of maritime power,there is also lack of comprehensive exploration in spatial and temporal scales from quantitative perspective.In order to enhance the understanding on China's maritime power strategy,this paper turns the maritime power into marine economic-technology-environmental compound system,which treats these three subsystems as mutual complicated system.We build a multi-level indicator system to reveal the development level,internal characteristics and operating status of the whole and part of the system.Specifically,this paper will successively carry out the level measurement,coordination analysis,relevance exploration and efficiency evaluation on marine compound systems.On the basis of clarifying the feedback mechanism of this marine system,the optimal path of system evolution under different target scenarios is simulated.Finally,combined with the frontiers of international marine research,it proposes financing tools,model selections and policy mechanisms to drive the construction of a maritime power through blue finance.In response to the above content,this paper will integrate theories and methods of economics,management and system science,use mathematical evaluation models,spatial analysis tools,social network analysis,econometric models and system dynamics and other model tools together to explore marine compound system.The comprehensive research framework provides policy implications for coordinated governance among different marine departments and accelerating the process of building a maritime power.This paper consist of eight chapters and be arranged as follows:Chapter 1: Introduction.An overview of the topic selection of the paper,the main research content and methods,the key points,difficulties and innovations during the work,the structure of the paper,and related preliminary research outcomes.Chapter 2: Theoretical basis and literature review.Introduce relevant theories related to the marine compound system,including dissipation structure theory,coordinated development theory,system dynamics and sustainable development theory;define relevant core concepts,including marine power,marine economy,marine technology and marine environment;overview the research progress related to marine system in recent years,including the development,coordination,relevance and efficiency of marine compound system.Based on the literature review,we finally points out the deficiencies of existing research.Chapter 3: Measurement of the development level of marine compound system.Construct an indicator system for marine compound system to measure its development level in 11 coastal regions from 2007 to 2016,and compare the degree of contribution and obstacles of the subsystems' dimensions and indicators to the overall development of whole system.The results show that the development levels of the three subsystems increased by 40%,48% and 18% respectively;the marine S&T in the northern region increased rapidly,the eastern region has the highest level of marine economic development,while the southern region has the best level of marine environment;the Moran's I of the development levels for three subsystems are all negative;In terms of driving factors,the marine economy mainly relies on scale expansion,marine S&T mainly comes from the output increase,and the contribution of various elements of marine environment is relatively balanced;for the diagnosis of obstacles,the declining of growth rate of marine economy is declining,the unstable supply of marine talents and slow construction of marine protected areas are the key factors hindering the development of marine system in most regions.Chapter 4: Coordinated development of marine compound system.First of all,the simultaneous changes of marine compound systems in coastal areas are judged from perspective of relative level and growth elasticity.Secondly,calculate the degree of coupling and coordination of this system,and establish an network among system elements(or dimensions)to obtain the central position and structure of this network.Finally,the neural network model is used to measure the contribution of each indicator to the coordinated evolution between the subsystems.The results show that the marine S&T in the northern region is relatively advanced,while the marine environment is lag behind,the marine economy in the eastern region is advanced,and marine environment in the southern region is seriously advanced;most regions are located near "expansion negative decoupling" area,indicating that while the whole marine system experience overall growth but the three subsystems are not coordinated;the average coupling coordination degree is 0.814,reaching a good coordination level;the largest network node in correlation network mostly comes from marine economic subsystem;the contribution of marine economy,S&T and environmental indicators to the synergy of the compound system is 26.4%,38.6% and 35.4%.Chapter 5: Interaction and causality of marine compound system.On the one hand,the VAR model is used to examine the response relationship and mutual contribution among the three marine subsystems in 11 coastal areas.On the other hand,the panel data model,EKC model and threshold effect model are used to test the causal mechanism between the three subsystems.The results show that the marine economy responds strongly to the change of marine environment.The response of marine S&T to marine economy is not obvious,and the response of marine S&T to marine environment fluctuates positive greatly;in terms of the relationship between marine economy and marine S&T,increasing capital and labor input can significantly promote marine economic growth.At the same time,marine economic growth can stimulate the more innovative activities;as for the relationship between marine economy and marine environment,the amount of industrial solid waste discharge and the marine economic proxy variable shows an inverted "N" shape,with two inflection points are between 50,000 and 10,000 yuan;regarding the relationship between marine S&T and marine environment,environmental policies have a significant dual threshold effect on the proportion of marine application-oriented subjects.Chapter 6: Green efficiency of marine compound system.Construct a green efficiency input-output system that includes variables such as marine economy,technology and environment.Then use the SFA model and SBM model to measure the green efficiency of compound system in 11 coastal ares.The results show that labor and S&T input have a significant positive impact on marine economic output.The increase of 1% of these two factors can drive the growth of marine GDP by0.983% and 0.354% respectively.At the same time,as the marine economy grows,the marine pollution index also significantly increase;SFA efficiency is generally close to the medium efficiency level,the efficiency in the eastern region is the highest while in the southern region is low but the growth rate is fast;the spatial distribution of SFA efficiency shows "middle high,low north and south";The SBM efficiency is basically close to DEA efficiency;the SBM efficiency of Hebei,Jiangsu and Guangxi has improved significantly;the total factor productivity of marine compound systems is on the rise for most of the time that mainly rely on the progress of marine technology.Chapter 7: Simulation and optimization of marine compound system.First,establish a system dynamics(SD)model that reflects the feedback mechanism of the marine compound system and predict the evolution of the main variables of the system to 2030.Secondly,set the utility maximization goals of three subsystems and use multi-objective genetic algorithm to find the non-inferior solution sets of the investment coefficients for different subsystems.Finally,the solution sets are classified to obtain a simulation scenario with different subsystem goals first,and then substituting it into the SD model.The results show that the initial scenario shows that China's total marine GDP will reach 22.7 trillion yuan by 2030.Compared with 2016,the added value of marine industry has expanded by nearly five times,the level of marine S&T output has fluctuated growth,and the level of marine environment presents concave type;for the optimization of investment coefficient,the genetic algorithm obtains 60 sets of non-inferior solutions when the population size is 200.These non-inferior solutions are summarized into three optimized simulation scenarios;although the initial scenarios still show better results in the short term with higher economic benefits,but optimized scenarios generally show stronger and more sustainable economic driving forces in the long term.Chapter 8: Conclusions and prospects.Summarize the core conclusions drawn from the empirical research on marine compound system,put forward policy recommendations for the problems and put forward prospects for future research on marine powers or marine systems.The main innovations of this paper are reflected in the following three aspects:Firstly,operationalizing the maritime power strategy as marine compound system.There are many discussions about marine powers,most of them just qualitatively analyzed the marine strategic from macro perspective,while seldom carried out quantitative analysis empirically.Although some studies examine issues such as marine economy,marine S&T or marine environment under maritime power strategy,they often only focus on one aspects and fail to form a theoretical framework for china's maritime power building.Meanwhile,there is also lack of full attention on the complicated relationship between economy,technology,and environment directed by maritime powers.This paper characterizes the concept of a maritime power as a marine economic-technology-environmental compound system,and quantify the core connotation of maritime power strategy for the first time.It not only changes the previous research modes that focused on single or dual subsystems,but also provides a framework for exploring the diversity and complexity of maritime powers.Secondly,examining the complexity of marine systems from interdisciplinary perspective and proposing strategies for optimization and improvement.The existing social science researches in marine field mostly adopts the methodology of a single disciplinary,such as econometrics,public management,spatial geography and human ecology.The integration of different subject methods is low,as a result,the research conclusions will lack of comparability for same marine issue,also for related marine issues that cannot be logically connected effectively.In order to integrate the current fragmented research status,this paper attempts to integrate economics,management and systems science methods together from the aspects of development,coordination,relevance and efficiency.It will reveal the marine compound system in a comprehensive and in-depth manner,and look for strategies that promote the development level and growth path of the system.Thirdly,Third,seeking optimization solutions from the complex feedback of marine compound systems.The existing literature rarely examines the issue of maritime powers from a systematic perspective,and largely ignores the multiple feedback between marine economic,technological and environmental variables,resulting in insufficient understanding of the system structure and future behavior.In order to present the complex feedback mechanism of the marine compound system and find strategies for optimizing the system development and improving the system path,this paper constructs a SD model,which incorporate core variables of the compound system,to simulate the evolution path of this system.Furthermore,different scenarios are set and the optimal strategy for the evolution of this compound system under various investment strategies is identified.This work can provide some policy implications for the next step in formulating a comprehensive marine development plan and investment options across marine sectors. |
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