STRUCTURAL SIMULATION IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY (DEVELOPMENT, MODELLING, PLANNING)

The chemical industry structure consists of a network of processes that converts feedstocks into products which are demanded by the economy. The processing network presents several alternative routes to transform the feedstock into final products. The interaction of technical, economic and behavioral forces controls the course of the industry. Decision makers require a tool that considers these forces in analyzing the industry.; In the analysis of the industry two approaches can be distinguished: one in which the industry is seen as a whole, and the other, in which each process is analyzed individually. When using the latter, it is important to analyze the processes within the context of the whole network, so that the interactions between processes can be taken into account.; This work presents a non-optimization approach and focuses on technology assessment at the process level. The approach consists of having a graphic representation of the processing network and an algorithm that traverses the graphic representation. The approach is implemented for the petrochemical industry resulting in a model of this particular sector of the chemical industry. Given a processing structure, the model permits us to traverse the network assessing technology at the individual level. This feature is valuable for sensitivity analysis.; The model is used to assess the impact in a processing structure when hazardous materials are eliminated from a production route of a particular chemical. The bans in the United States of the use of acrylonitrile to produce hexamethylenediamine and phenol to produce caprolactam are used as examples.; The use of the model for industrial development is also presented. Given projection of the demand for final products, the model integrates the industry such that all the chemicals demand is met. A projected demand in the United States for 1995 is used. In addition, the model is used to generate integration sequences based on different tactics that determine the capacity expansion schedule needed, so that the existing processing structure converges into a target structure.; The modeling of the chemical industry through technology assessment at the process level, a non-optimization approach, can be used as a complement or alternative to existing optimization approaches in the analysis of the chemical industry. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)...