ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, STRUCTURE, AND MEASUREMENT (THREE ESSAYS ON 'SOFT' ECONOMETRICS)

Research practices of econometricians evolve rapidly. They have changed as much in the last two decades as they did in the preceding two decades when the primacy of the simultaneous-equation model was established. Much of what econometricians do now does not fit into the framework indicated by a preoccupation with statistical inference. Given this background, it is convenient to distinguish soft econometrics from its hard counterpart, which stresses mathematical statistics. This distinction is derived from a parallel in Cox's discussion of the behaviour of statisticians, and of the nature of data. To clarify the substance of soft econometrics and to reveal its occurrence, three essays are provided. One essay considers the potential use of econometrics in long-wave research. A second essay looks at the impact of changing views on the concept of structure, while the final essay deals with the interaction of soft econometrics and significant issues of measurement. The concluding comments emphasize the complexity and variety of modern econometrics.