| The purpose of this study was to develop a model for producing estimates of the demand for teachers by various subject areas in public secondary schools in Georgia between 1984 and 1993. Specifically, the following question was answered. What is the demand for teachers to teach each of the following disciplines: agriculture, art, business education, English, foreign language, health and physical education, home economics, industrial arts, mathematics, science, social studies, music, special education, driver education, vocational education, and other subject area courses in the public secondary schools in the State of Georgia each year to 1993?; A review of literature included general population forecasting techniques and enrollment forecasting techniques. Regression, as the general forecasting technique, and Cohort Survival Technique, as the enrollment forecasting technique were judged to be acceptable for the study.; A model was constructed using available state and national data. These data included Georgia births, student average daily attendance, secondary teacher population, and national percentages of teachers employed by discipline. Operational definitions were developed to be able to compute the relationships among the data in order to project the demand for teachers. An illustrative model was presented using actual data. Available data were then used to develop the model for all subject areas.; The findings indicated that in Georgia the demand for teachers in the disciplines of art, English, mathematics, music, science, special education, and driver education is projected to increase during the next 10 years. The disciplines of agriculture, business education, foreign language, home economics, and vocational education will decrease in the demand for teachers during the next 10 years. The disciplines of health and physical education, industrial arts, social studies, and other disciplines will remain relatively stable during the next 10 years in the demand for teachers.; The recommended adaptations of the model make it applicable to any state. Suggestions were made that the model would be more accurate if Georgia data were used exclusively and if alterations were made to reflect existing conditions not known at this time. |
