| Thirty years ago, agreement was virtually unanimous that nuclear power was the energy source of the future--inexpensive, plentiful, and within the realm of available technology. In the intervening thirty years, the prospects for the nuclear power industry have undergone extraordinary change. No new orders for nuclear power plants have been placed in the last ten years. Orders for more than 100 plants, many already under construction, have been cancelled since 1972. Sunk costs for these plants exceeded ;As an initial step, this research developed a taxonomy of issues involved in the decline of the nuclear power industry: management and technology, safety and the environment, economics, and government and regulatory matters. A three round Delphi exercise was then conducted with a view toward identifying what the future holds for the nuclear power industry. The 98 participants in the exercise included key representatives from both industry and non-industry sources, and were considered to constitute expert opinion on the issues. On the industry side, senior executives from electric utilities, manufacturers of nuclear reactors, and architect-engineering firms involved in the construction of nuclear power plants were included. On the non-industry side, chairmen of state utility regulatory commissions, chairmen of state energy commissions, key staff representatives on energy-related congressional committees, and commissioners of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission participated.;Participant responses were categorized and analyzed according to the previously developed taxonomy, with a strong measure of consensus evolving on the great majority of issues. Identification of this consensus on key issues will be helpful to industry and government planners concerned with meeting the nation's electrical energy needs in the future. An "Opinion Tractability Matrix" was developed to assist in identifying those issues incorporated in any Delphi Exercise which will encounter the most difficulty in achieving eventual consensus. Finally, a generalized discussion of the introduction of high technology in the socio-political environment, using nuclear power as a prototypical example, is included. |
