Complex economic growth

Historically economic growth paths have not followed the balanced growth trajectory characteristic of the Neoclassical model. This study examines the way in which institutions, capital accumulation, population and technological change interact to produce complex growth patterns.;In Part I a regime-based growth model endogenizes population, economic output and capital to analyze growth in the ancient past. Increasing population density can precipitate a crisis for a society when its dominant economic strategy falters from overuse.;Occasionally, the adoption of a new economic strategy calls for a reorganization of institutions, and the demand for different forms of capital makes a successful transition problematical. Several such changes are examined culminating with an analysis of conditions leading to a city state.;Part II examines technological development in an industry competing technologically through cost reduction within a modern capitalistic economy. The incompatibility of technological competition and equilibrium becomes apparent within the context of a model endogenizing capital, technological growth and profits.;Technological growth is viewed as a phenomenon developing from conscious efforts (such as R&D) by firms who must improve production methods to stay competitive, but those efforts represent a gamble to its mostly risk-averse backers. The outcome of technological competition is uncertain, consequently from a macro perspective conditions of over and under supply crop up regularly.;When profitable periods occur, firms are encouraged to increase their gambling on R&D and technological progress accelerates. The feedback effects of the three variables on each other are discussed and modeled.