THE INFLUENCE OF A NATURAL DISASTER ON HUMAN FERTILITY

The investigation focused upon the aspects of the 1976 earthquake in Guatemala which were expected to influence fertility. The analysis of the Guatemalan case was supplemented by changes in fertility rates associated with other natural disasters in Louisiana and Alaska. Specifically, an attempt was made to determine whether the social structural disruption following the earthquake contributed to post-disaster fertility levels in Guatemala.; The investigation was primarily based on data derived from the initial stage of a longitudinal investigation of the 1976 Guatemalan disaster. The original survey permitted the computation of tri-monthly fertility rates from February, 1974, through January, 1978. Also, data pertaining to the pregnancy status on April 2, 1976, of a sub-sample of women in the fecund years were available. The information from this study was augmented by monthly fertility rates for the years including and contiguous with the natural disasters of Guatemala as well as in Alaska and Louisiana.; The basic hypotheses that natural disasters would exert at least transitory effects on reproduction were supported. However, only in Alaska did the effect on reproduction continue. Consequently, the research results suggested that substantial social change only accompanies disasters which have relatively lengthy durations, such as famines and wars. On the other hand, in situations where a trend is underway or conditions are conducive to one, a catastrophe may accelerate the rate of change.; The social structural disruption which developed as a consequence of the 1976 Guatemalan earthquake did not have substantial effects on post-disaster fertility. Nevertheless, several of the selected control or contextual variables exerted statistically significant although substantively small impacts on post-earthquake fertility levels in Guatemala. Therefore, the results of the investigation are suggestive that disasters with relatively temporary effects do not substantially affect fertility-related physiological processes or behaviors. Nevertheless, it may be proposed that a catastrophe of prolonged duration and extreme magnitude would be expected to influence fertility as a result of social structural adjustments.