Predicting Box Office Sales using Physiologic Synchrony for Movie Trailer

Even though engagement with stories feels like an individual experience, there is research to suggest otherwise. Individuals' neurophysiological reactions to stimuli have been found to have similar neurophysiological patterns when individuals experience the same events, such as exposure to the same narrative. Previous research indicates that these synchronistic neurophysiological reactions can predict market outcomes, are better predictors than the typical averaging methods used in neurophysiological research, and are more effective than self-report measures. In the movie industry, movie trailers are used to try and motivate people to watch the movie in its entirety. Typical movie market research utilizes self-report measures when determining the marketing budget and how to be increase profits. The use of physiological reactions as well as physiological synchronicity in movie trailers to forecast market outcomes have not been utilized to date. The current study examined how autonomic nervous system activity (ANS) predicted market outcomes for movies. ANS was collected via electrocardiogram and skin conductance (SC) in 60 people who viewed three movie trailers on two different platforms (TV or smartphone). Both traditional percent change measures of physiology, as well as autonomic synchronicity were used to predict self-report measures, domestic box office sales, and narrative transportation. Self-report measures were added to predict market outcomes. No differences were found in self-reported experience between platforms, however there was an increase in sympathetic arousal and a decrease in vagal tone while viewing the movie trailers on a smartphone versus a TV. Both percent change in SC levels and synchrony of SC levels were significant predictors of market outcomes and narrative transportation in the model. Self-report measures were not significant predictors. The findings indicate that sympathetic arousal and how closely linked an individual's sympathetic arousal is to the group are small but significant predictors of box office success and how transported people feel when watching a movie trailer.