Comparative theories of social policy development: A historical-quantitative study of Hong Kong

Debates on the comparative analysis of welfare states have been guided by one important question: What determines the welfare-state development? While various theoretical approaches have been formulated giving different answers to this question, empirical research is dominated by three schools of thought: the industrial society perspective, the social democratic model and the state-centered theory. The field of comparative social policy research is unsatisfactory; it is plagued by problems of inconsistent results, artificial dichotomy of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, and an obvious neglect of developing countries. This study attempts to remedy this deficiency by looking at the determinants of social policy in developing countries in general and Hong Kong in particular. Methodologically, there is a clear advantage to integrate quantitative and qualitative research. Using an integrated approach of quantitative and historical analysis, the study applies a range of variables from the dominant theories of social policy development to the case of Hong Kong.;Using quantitative time-series regression, it is found that the state-centered theory offers the best explanation of policy development while the relationship between industrialization and social intervention is weak. On the other hand, historical analysis delineates four phases of social development which are marked by different approaches: residualism, "big bang" expansion, incrementalism and privatization. The variables found to be important over time include: geopolitics, crisis, class-state alliance and the nature of colonial system. Historical study thus complements the longitudinal quantitative method by identifying the key state variables as well as depicting the actual process of social policy development. The study raises some questions about the general applicability of the concept "welfare-state regime". Contrary to dominant social and economic thinking in development, the developmentalist state of Hong Kong has turned to social welfare to create a peaceful environment for its economic development and to enhance the legitimacy of the colonial system.