| A model of deforestation for the post-war Philippines is presented in which the two main agents of forest destruction have been identified to be logging and agriculture (both shifting and permanent). It is postulated that logging is primarily responsible for converting the primary forest to secondary forest and that agricultural activities then convert the secondary forest to farmland.;The model was statistically tested in three ways. First, a multiple regression cross-sectional analysis of forest cover at the provincial level for 1957, 1970 and 1980 was conducted. Second, a panel analysis from 1970 to 1980 with deforestation as the dependent variable was conducted. Third, a path analysis of the 1970 to 1980 period was carried out to confirm the results of the panel analysis.;The results of the cross-sectional statistical analysis indicate that absolute forest cover is negatively related to road and population density. The panel analysis, on the other hand, indicates that actual deforestation from 1970 to 1980 is positively related to forest area in 1970, distance from Manila, change in agricultural area and logging quotas in 1970. The distance from Manila variable is important because it represents the lack of control of the forest removal process and, as such, is used as a proxy for corruption in the forest sector and elite control of government in general and natural resources in particular. It is important to note that changes in population were not important in explaining deforestation.;An important conclusion of this research is that studies of deforestation which use percentage forest cover as the dependent variable are of limited importance in depicting the process of deforestation itself. In addition, the value of cross-national studies is seriously questioned. The present research highlights the importance of government control of a valuable resource and a socio-economic system which results in poverty for the majority of Filipinos. Deforestation is the result of the failure of the Philippine economy to provide jobs and elite control of the government which has concentrated the financial returns from logging in the hands of logging concessionaires and their allies. This also means that deforestation in the Philippines is amenable to policy intervention. |
