An integrated regional systems model of rural family and community conditions and land use decisions in the La Amistad Biosphere Reserve buffer zone in Costa Rica and Panama

The purpose of this study was to develop, evaluate, and use an integrated regional systems model capable of simulating rural family and community conditions and land use decisions in the La Amistad Biosphere Reserve (LABR) buffer zone in Costa Rica and Panama. The study comprised 53 regional, community, and farm-level participants and used a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, including document review, individual in-depth interviews, content analysis, and frequencies. A set of 80 key conditions, the distribution of land among six land-use classifications along a conservation-development continuum, a set of 104 land use decision variables and subvariables, including those most influential in farmers' decisions to allocate land to particular uses along the continuum, and a set of seven linkages among the variables and subvariables were identified. These data were used in the preliminary deterministic multivariate integrated systems model that simulated 10 years of land use-decisions and resultant shifts in hectares among six land-use classifications of an average buffer zone farmer.; The relative sensitivity of model output to changes in the model was evaluated with a sensitivity analysis of selected variables using the Panamanian scenario. The model was insensitive to changes in most variables and most sensitive to changes in the variables lumber price, coffee price, interest rates, and preference. The ability of the model to predict shifts in land use among land use classifications by country was determined through use with a factorial experimental design. Combinations of variables had effects through the timing and amount of financial resources available to farmers and certain management strategies had varying impacts on land use. Buffer zone integrated conservation and development project management strategies indicated by study data were also explored.; This study provides insights into the infrequently examined and little understood land use decision-making process in buffer zones by identifying forces, underlying causes, and interactions among them that influenced land use decisions and their different environmental impacts. The model needs to be refined, but its process and results are a foundation for future refinement that has the potential to improve management for the maintenance of biodiversity.