Special collections in the year 2015: A Delphi study

The researcher conducted a Delphi study to determine whether a panel of experts could reach consensus concerning the status of special collections in academic libraries, 20 years into the future, in 2015. In the first round, 20 participants representing archives, conservation, rare books librarianship, and records management responded to an open-ended question that generated topics for discussion. In two subsequent rounds, the experts rated statements on a five-point Likert scale as to the probability and desirability of their occurring by 2015. Consensus, defined as agreement among 75% of the panelists (with a final N of 16), determined incongruities in four areas: sources of funding, fees for services, staff shortages and declining levels of user literacy. Although the experts anticipated such positive changes as increased use of collections by off-site users and the existence of more powerful workstations, they also foresaw the possibility that research in the humanities and the importance of preserving primary sources may be low priorities in the academic library of tomorrow. Implications for library education and the management of special collections and their parent organizations also emerged.