| Water has become a scarce resource globally due to the phenomenal population growth in the last century. As the demand for water increases and exclusively national sources of water are exhausted, the only major sources of water that remain to be developed in the twenty-first century are likely to be international in nature. As a result, conflicts among nation states over the use of water in international river basins have been intensified.; This dissertation presents an analytical framework to evaluate key policy and strategic questions facing riparian countries and international organizations in dealing with water conflicts in international rivers. In particular, through a case study of the Nile basin, we have developed an analytical framework by integrating hydrological modeling, operations research and game theory.; White water conflicts have often been perceived as "zero-sum" games in which one riparian country would have to lose in order for another riparian country to gain, our analyses indicate that water conflicts in the Nile basin are clearly not "zero-sum" games. We have shown in our analysis how game-theoretical concepts such as the core and the Shapley value can help decision makers and negotiators of riparian countries to better understand their strategic choices in negotiation. In particular, game theoretical results may help riparian countries to narrow down their differences, and thus to form a basis for negotiation. They also help riparian countries to understand the sources of their negotiation power. The framework established in this dissertation may also be of interest to international organizations that are often called upon to play a critical role in international water disputes. We have shown that the actions and policies of international organizations may shift the power structure among riparian countries in disputes, and such effects should be taken into consideration. |
