Examining gray wolf population projection, control and viability using density-dependent logistic matrix models

A Leslie matrix model was developed for the gray wolf ( Canis lupus). The model was modified to describe population growth in a resource limited environment using discrete time forms of the logistic equation. Density dependent Leslie matrix models were applied to investigate gray wolf population growth and management in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Model projections were compared to published winter count estimates from the Michigan Department of Natural Resources. The gray wolf population was projected to reach 929 wolves by the year 2012 with a 95% confidence interval of 662 to 1153 wolves. Control strategies whereby a fixed fraction of the population was removed annually were simulated. Population growth trends resulting from the simulations indicated that removing 10% or 20% of the wolf population annually could effectively restrict growth of the population without falling short of federal and state recovery goals. Annual removal of 10% of the wolf population resulted in an average projected population size of 678 in 2018 with a total of 901 wolves removed over the time period 2001 to 2018. Annual removal of 20% of the wolf population resulted in an average population size of 393 in 2018 with a total of 1171 wolves removed over the time period 2001 to 2018. Age specific removal of wolves, whereby wolves with the highest reproductive value were exclusively removed, resulted in fewer wolves being removed to achieve desired levels of control.; A Leslie matrix was developed for the coyote (Canis latrans), and gray wolf population viability was compared to coyote population viability for varying levels of population control. Life history traits of existing wolf and coyote populations were examined, and it was demonstrated that age at first reproduction and age specific reproductive values of coyotes and wolves are differing characteristics that are important for understanding differences in population viability under conditions whereby human induced mortality is high for each species. It was estimated that gray wolves are capable of withstanding 26% annual human induced population mortality before being driven to extinction. In contrast, coyotes were estimated to be capable of withstanding 40% annual human induced population mortality.