Red Brain, Blue Brain: How Elite Polarization, Partisan Reasoning, and Information Choice Impact Presidential Communication

Even the most minimal, basic definitions of democracy require that elected officials (elites) respond to citizens' preferences (Pitkin 1967; Dahl, 1971; Mansbridge, 2003). In practice, however, it is not that simple. Elected officials have long known that it is not only in their interest to follow public opinion but to potentially shape it as well. Presidential responsiveness and influence have been sources of significant political and scholarly debate in American politics. A potential complication arises if, instead of simply being responsive to public opinion, presidents and their rhetoric also affect public opinion; this endogeneity makes the nature and degree of presidential responsiveness unclear. Many scholars have recognized this dilemma of representation and suggested or shown that presidents do at times (a) work to affect public opinion, and (b) do sometimes affect opinion. There has not been, however, much work identifying how and when the president influences opinion. If there is an effect, important questions remain about how and when presidents use this potential power to their advantage. This project focuses on two contemporary phenomena that shape the discourse of contemporary American politics: elite polarization and increased media and information choice. Using survey analyses and experimental designs, my findings suggest that although the president may have difficulty persuading a broad segment of the population due to elite polarization (selective exposure, motivated reasoning) and a noisier media environment (information choice), the president likely maintains the ability to mobilize and to engage with like-minded partisans and ideologues to achieve some impact on his job approval and the public policy issues he finds most important.