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Toward an understanding of the cyclical formation of public opinion: Presidential approval ratings and public opinion polls

Posted on:2006-12-05Degree:Ph.DType:Dissertation
University:The University of Texas at AustinCandidate:Hong, Won-SikFull Text:PDF
GTID:1458390008965397Subject:Journalism
Abstract/Summary:
The goal of this study is to explore the influence of the news media on the cyclical formation process of public opinion with the case of presidential approval rating from the last forty years. To explore this relationship empirically, this study investigates the historical fluctuations of presidential approval ratings, which have been regularly measured since the 1950s, and how the New York Times' presentation of the ratings has itself influenced public opinion on presidential popularity for the last forty years.; To explore the causal relationship between the NYT and a series of presidential approval rates in two-ways, this study suggests two hypotheses of investigating the influence of convergence and change in presidential approval ratings on the NYT and two hypotheses of testing the additive/subtractive effect and volatility effect of the NYT reports on the following approval rating. The analysis of the relationship is conducted by using two statistical methods: First, in order to test the two hypotheses of investigating the influence of convergence and change in presidential approval rates on the NYT's decision to report the approval rates, this study applies the quadratic regression model. Next, the influence of the NYT reports on the subsequent approval rates is investigated by applying time-series models.; The statistical tests confirm that there exists a reciprocal relation between the NYT reports and public evaluation of presidential performance, and the relation results in the intensification of majority opinion and the increased volatility of public opinion. The findings of this study show: first, media sensitivity to a given issue varies over time: the convergence and change in public opinion raise the salience of the given issue; second, news selection does matter: news media provide unambiguous information but they are not an exact sample of the population; third, a simple cue makes a difference in individual statistical sense of the climate of public opinion. This study concludes that public opinion influence media attention, which, in turn, affect public opinion at a later date.
Keywords/Search Tags:Public opinion, Presidential approval, Influence, Media, NYT reports
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