Continuing patterns: Three dimensions of Japanese-Russian relations, 1996--2002

The late 1990s marked a period of tremendous anticipation in bilateral relations between Japan and Russia. For the first time in over two hundred years neither country viewed the other as a direct security threat. Bilateral political contacts of the highest level proliferated, highlighted by warm personal contacts between the leaders of both nations. Relations between the defense establishments of both nations sprouted seemingly overnight, perhaps even surpassing bilateral political relations in terms of atmospherics and good will. And by the end of the 1990s Japanese-Russian and international energy consortia in the Russian Far East actually began producing and exporting energy. For the first time since the end of the Second World War there was a palpable mood in both countries that the long-standing enmity could be put aside and that the relationship could finally be normalized. As the 1990s came to a close, however, it was clear the two nations were still far from settling the territorial dispute that had prevented a normalization of relations since the end of the Second World War. This study explores why the two nations have been unable to normalize relations. Japanese-Russian bilateral interaction is examined in the context of international structural forces, domestic politics, and ideational factors. The two nations have been brought together in brief periods of rapprochement throughout the 20th century, due primarily to international structural factors, but domestic political and ideational factors have often hindered the relationship from advancing beyond a mere temporary dalliance of convenience. This study also explores how states react to change wrought by structural transformation, and how this affects their diplomacy. This study contributes to the literature on Japanese and Russian foreign policy making, and on the international relations of Northeast Asia in the post-Cold War era, by examining the different influences and factors behind the decision-making process of the dominant political elite in both countries, based on a review of Japanese and Russian language sources and interviews with a wide range of decision makers and experts in both countries.