| Diesel freight vehicles (trucks + trains) are responsible for 20% of all U.S. nitrogen oxide (NOx) and 3% of fine particulate (PM2.5) emissions - pollutants that are harmful to human health. Freight tonnage is also projected to double over the next several decades, reaching 30 billion tons by 2050, increasing freight transport activity. Air quality impacts from increased activity, trade-offs between activity and vehicle technology improvements, as well as where to make infrastructure investments that encourage sustainable freight growth, are important considerations for transportation and air quality managers.;To address these questions, we build a bottom-up roadway-by-roadway freight truck inventory (WIFE) and employ it to quantify emissions impacts of swapping biodiesel blends into the Midwest diesel freight truck fleet, and investigate emissions and air quality impacts of truck-to-rail freight modal shifts in the Midwest. We also evaluate the spatial and seasonal freight performance of WIFE modeled in a regional photochemical model (CMAQ) against satellite retrievals of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI).;Results show that spatial and seasonal distribution of biodiesel affects regional emissions impacts. Summer high-blend deployment yields a larger annual emissions reduction than year-round low-blend deployment, however, technological improvements in vehicle emissions controls between 2009 and 2018 dwarf the impacts of biodiesel. Truck-to-rail modal shift analysis found 40% of daily freight truck VMT could be shifted to rail freight, causing a 26% net reduction in NOx emissions, and 31% less carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite significant emissions impacts, air quality modeling results showed mostly localized near roadway air quality improvements, with small regional net changes; yet, federal regulation of CO2 emissions and/or rising costs of diesel fuel could motivate shifting freight to more fuel efficient rail. Evaluation of the photochemically modeled WIFE inventory against satellite retrievals of NO2 from OMI showed better spatial agreement between WIFE and OMI compared to another diesel inventory (LADCO), however with larger bias and error, especially in urban areas. This preliminary analysis illustrates the utility of satellite data in evaluating air quality model performance, and constraining surface emissions estimates. |
