| This is research is to establish a modeling framework for alcohol abuse that allows evaluation of interventions meant to reduce adverse effects of alcohol overuse without the financial, social and other costs of imposing interventions that are ultimately ineffective (or even simply not cost effective). The framework is ecological {lcub}individual agents and their activities are represented), stochastic (neither individual behavior nor consequences of interventions are certain) and flexible. Constructing the framework involves interactions among the domain science of alcohol studies, statistics, and computer science.*; In the developed world such as the United States, based on Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) lost (Ezzati et al., 2002), alcohol is the third leading cause of mortality and morbidity. Much of the mortality and morbidity is associated with violence as a result of drinking behavior. Interventions designed to reduce both chronic and acute mortality and morbidity associated with alcohol use may be effective in limited circumstances. However, often suppressing one negative outcome can have the impact of increasing other negative outcomes. For example, adding police patrols to drinking hotspots may suppress assaults, but may increase driving under the influence and domestic violence. This research initiates a systemic approach to understanding the complex interactions and consequently exploring the effect of interventions within sectors of the complex ecological-like system that surrounds users and abusers of alcohol. The tool that I have developed effectively allows the investigator to play the "what if" games to find improved strategies and subsequently design intervention strategies toward accomplishing the desired reductions in negative outcomes. Such a strategy is particularly relevant to both the entire society and subsegments of it, e.g. the military because of the potential for alcohol abuse among young, unattached males and the resulting loss of military readiness, order and warfare capabilities (Dunham, 2004). The leap from genomic, microbiologic and neuronal understanding of the effects of alcohol to the behavior of individuals as influenced by alcohol is one that has not been thoroughly understood in the medical and psychological literature. I believe that an ecological approach leads to a better understanding of the alcohol behavior on a macro-scale and allows insight into the linkage between the neuronal scale and the behavioral scale with a direct impact on treatment strategies. (Abstract shortened by UMI.); *Please refer to dissertation for diagrams. |
