The problem of restoring natural systems among social systems: Strategic considerations and the Sacramento River

Restoring ecosystems within multi-use landscapes has the potential to produce positive or negative feedbacks for ecosystem function, as well as other land uses. Careful analysis of the expectations for both restorationists as well as other landowners is necessary for planning restoration activities in a manner that produces positive (or neutral) rather than negative feedbacks from surrounding landowners. These complex interactions between restorationists and farmers have been prevalent in the upper Sacramento River Valley in California. In some cases restoration projects have been designed to complement farming activities in ways that elicited positive feedbacks such as increased natural vegetation. In other cases, farmers have modified management practices or taken political action that have offset or prevented restoration activities. I used theory to identify the strategic framework and identify likely means of avoiding conflict. I gathered and applied survey responses and actual farming and restoration costs from the upper Sacramento River Valley to develop restorationist-farmer interaction simulations via game-theoretic and agent-based models. Game-theoretic simulation results demonstrate the relationships between restorationists' and farmers' beliefs and actions that lead to situations of conflict or cooperation. Relevant drivers from restorationists include their expectations of ecological benefits from restoration and ecological gains and damages from negative feedbacks. Relevant drivers from farmers include their expectations of benefits and damages from restoration as well as effects of responses from other farmers. Agent-based simulations reveal the influence on defensive response patterns of various landowner expectation characteristics as well as geographical positioning of restoration activities. Expanding the restorationist's strategy space to consider design and management options that deviate somewhat from a specific pre-development natural state can allow outcomes that increase ecological and agricultural benefits. This result can be used to identify strategic improvements at multiple scales.