| The Maskoutains regional county municipality (RCM) in Southern Quebec, Canada, is a dominant agricultural territory characterized by intense deforestation caused by agriculture intensification. A cellular automata (CA) model was elaborated to simulate the future territorial dynamics of this agro-forested landscape. CA are simulation models in which space is an array of cells that evolve through time with the application of transition rules dictating how the different cell states react to state configurations present in a specified neighborhood. A specific spatial scale characterizes CA models when they are used to simulate a geographic territory. Scale has been shown to significantly influence statistical analysis and modeling results. However, decisions related to scale components in CA modeling are often made arbitrarily, and their impact on the simulation results is still poorly understood. The objective of this study is twofold: (1) perform a scale sensitivity analysis of CA, and (2) test the influence of different land-use scenarios implemented to protect the remaining forested areas.; To test the sensitivity to spatial scale, CA were elaborated using a combination of multiple cell sizes and neighborhood configurations. Probabilistic transition rules were computed from the comparison of two landuse maps derived from Landsat-TM images. Results of the sensitivity analysis reveal that spatial scale has a considerable impact on simulation outcomes both in terms of land-cover areas and spatial structure. The spatial scale domains that are present in the results show the non-linear relationships that link the spatial scale components to the simulation results. Based on these findings, a CA was elaborated to study the impact of various forest management scenarios (reduced deforestation, ligniculture, forest connectivity protection). Results indicate that none of the scenarios succeed in maintaining the actual levels of forest area. However, certain scenarios significantly reduce the loss of forest areas in the short to mid-term, and delay the fragmentation, reduction, and isolation of forest patches. |
