The long-term predictive validity of early mathematics curriculum-based measurement

Recent federal mandates and educational advocates emphasize accountability, early intervention, and responsiveness to intervention using continuous, brief assessments in order to improve student outcomes in mathematics. Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) can help meet these directives. Preliminary research suggests that one may use CBM for early identification and intervention with academic problems in mathematics (e.g., Chard et al., 2005; Clarke & Shinn, 2004; Daly, Wright, Kelly, & Martens, 1997; VanDerHeyden et al., 2001; VanDerHeyden et al., 2004; VanDerHeyden, Broussard, & Cooley, 2006). Specifically, reliability and validity data for CBM of early numeracy skills exist. However, there needs to be replication and extension of research in this area. The purpose of this dissertation was to provide information on the sensitivity and long-term predictive validity of early mathematics CBM administered in kindergarten on other direct and teacher-determined measures of mathematics administered in first grade.;The study assessed 61 students from kindergarten to first grade. Students completed a set of experimental early numeracy CBMs (Tests of Early Numeracy [TEN]; Clarke & Shinn, 2002) in kindergarten and first grade. The study included additional criterion measures (i.e., mathematics-CBM [M-CBM], report card grades, teacher ratings of mathematics skills, and discipline referral data) in the first grade assessment. Repeated measures ANOVAs explored student growth on the TEN measures. Correlation and regression analyses examined the relationships among the experimental measures and between the experimental and criterion measures.;Results indicated significant relationships between kindergarten and first grade TEN performance. In addition, students showed significant growth on all TEN measures from kindergarten to first grade. A measure of kindergarten students' number line skills, missing number, had the most support as a single indicator of first grade outcomes, in particular of first grade computation skills. In addition, it appears that a kindergarten measure of quantity discrimination is an important indicator of first grade teacher-determined outcomes. Preliminary descriptive data showed that students who received no discipline referrals in the first grade generally scored higher on kindergarten TEN than students who received one or more discipline referrals in the first grade.