| This dissertation examines the impact that the policies of closure, merger, or mandated integration of public HBCUs have on access and outcomes for African American students. HBCUs continue to be an important part of American higher education, however these institutions are still a part of a continuing debate on whether these institutions should exist post Brown v. Board of Education. This study looks at these policy implications by using a statistical model that represents the systems of higher education in Florida, Mississippi, Maryland, and Tennessee through the use of algebraic models. Time-series statistical modeling is used in this study to predict the participation and outcomes of African American students for a state's current system of higher education with HBCUs.;Using 11 years of data from the IPEDS database, from 1995-2006, the study estimates parameters that illustrate the relationship among participation measures (African American first time in college (FTIC), total enrollment that is African American, etc), and outcome measures (bachelor degrees awarded to African Americans, master degrees conferred to African Americans, etc.). The study incorporates these to forecast future values of the access and outcome variables based on the previous values in model from 2007-2016. Two alternate hypothetical policies are introduced in the econometric model: (1) the merger or closure of all HBCUs in a state's higher education system and (2) the mandated integration of HBCUs in a state's higher education system to reach 50% non-Black enrollment.;The results of this study have shown that the implementation of the policies of closure/merger or mandated integration at historically black colleges and universities have a significantly negative impact on access and outcomes for African American students. As expected the implementation of these polices caused huge declines in enrollment and degree attainment in Florida, Maryland, Mississippi and Tennessee. These declines were measured against the baseline of everything remaining the same in these states. While the baseline showed continued growth for access and outcomes in each of the states, the implementation of the 50% mandated enrollment at HBCUs saw slight declines in both access and outcomes for African American students. When HBCUs were merged or closed, the models showed a sharp decline in both access and outcomes that became permanent in each of the states. |
