Interstate conflict and ethnicity

Recently, ethnicity has received greater attention from international conflict scholars. This study explores a new aspect of how ethnic composition of states and the power of ethnic kin affect external state interventions in ethnic conflicts. Here it is hypothesized that states with dominant ethnic groups but still-significant ethnic minorities are expected to be more prone to intervention in ethnic conflict than states without one of these two characteristics. A new measure is proposed to capture such variation in ethnic composition more precisely. Looking at large-N panel data, it is found that ethnically diverse states with dominant ethnic groups are indeed the most likely to intervene in ethnic conflicts. Additionally, the power of the embattled ethnic kin minority, as determined by its settlement patterns in the host state, also increases the likelihood of intervention. Traditional variables like proximity and capability retain statistical significance. Ethnic variables, however, have the strongest effects on interventions in ethnic conflict. The statistical results are complemented with the examination of five case studies from the former Yugoslav republics: Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia and Slovenia. Serbia's experiences with Krajina's and Bosnia's Serbs and Croatia's experience with Bosnia's Croats are perhaps the strongest illustrations of the claim that single-ethnically dominated yet fractionalized states are more likely to help their kin militarily than any other state type. Slovenia and Macedonia illustrate the lack of motivation for an intervention in the absence of ethnic ties. Bosnia-Herzegovina demonstrates the decision-making difficulties in an ethnically fractionalized polity.