A complex systems approach to sustainability: Can peak oil fuel the sub-Saharan AIDS epidemic

The focus of this dissertation is development of a systems methodology to examine large scale interrelated complex global systems governing natural resource use, population, economy and global health. The study investigates questions regarding the individual disciplines and their integration as a system. Integrated assessment (IA) examines if the looming peak in world oil production, and the post-peak oil era, can intensify the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Other questions include: (1) When could the world reach peak oil production? (2) What are the economic implications for HIV/AIDS funding in the post peak oil era? (3) What is the potential humanitarian cost in lives lost per barrel of oil deficit?; A range of models have been developed and integrated in a decision support future assessment system as a reasoning support guide. An interactive cybernetic approach incorporating the global earth/human dimensions is applied to manage the many aspects of complexity and uncertainty. IA is enhanced by a decision-making paradigm that utilizes real data, a family of multi-level hierarchical models, and a human-in-the-loop approach. "Corner scenarios" envelope the scope of future development and hypothetical scenarios demonstrate possible futures within the envelope.; Results show oil production may peak by 2015. Without an alternative to fill the gap left by declining oil supplies, economic growth, closely correlated with oil consumption, will slow or decline. Affluent countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development may become unable to provide Official Development Assistance (ODA) funding for needy countries. Without ODA, HIV/AIDS preventive/treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa will likely disappear causing a spike in prevalence, higher mortality and a reduction in economy. Conversely, if the impending oil crisis is averted via strategic planning and alternative energy development, then ODA adequate to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could save millions of lives by preventing initial infection and providing antiretroviral therapy. IA through 2050 demonstrates that reductions in ODA lead to an increase from 6.1 to 15 percent HIV/AIDS prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa, as opposed to 1 percent prevalence if the MDGs are achieved; total population falls by over 450 million and Gross National Income growth drops by 30 percent.