Can quantitative family history scores from the Utah Health Family Tree administered to high school students identify parents at risk of developing coronary heart disease 17 years later

The Utah Health Family Tree is an effective, low-cost survey for determining elevated family history scores that can identify whole families at risk for developing coronary heart disease (CHD). In the present study, I sought to determine whether elevated family history scores could identify individuals at risk for developing CHD.;After an average of 17 years of follow-up, 381 participants completed a telephone-based, CHD, health-related survey and contributed 5,646 person years of observation. Sixty-three incidents of CHD events were recorded, including 26 coronary artery bypass grafts, 17 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 12 percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasties plus stents, and 8 fatal myocardial infarctions.;A significant trend was seen towards increasing CHD risk (chi2 = 6.55, p = 0.010), with an unadjusted relative risk of 1.00 in the low family history score group (n = 129), 1.66 in the high family history score group (n = 128), and 2.88 in the very high family history score group (n = 124). After adjusting for age, gender, high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, diabetes, smoking, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, body weight, family living environment, and education level, the very high family history score group was approximately 2.6 (95% confidence interval from 1.2 to 5.6) times as likely as the low family risk group to develop CHD.;It was concluded that a very high family history score (≥ 3.7) is capable of identifying individuals who are at risk for developing CHD over an average duration of 17 years. It was suggested that the Utah Health Family Tree is an effective, low-cost screening tool for identifying individuals who may have the most to gain from a lifestyle intervention aimed at the primary prevention of CHD.;A prospective cohort study design was used. A total of 28,069 Utah high school students and their parents completed Utah Health Family Tree surveys between 1983 and 1987, which were used to calculate the family history scores for each student's mother and father. In brief, the parental family history scores were classified into low, high, and very high risk groups. When the Utah Health Family Tree was completed, individual parents with no evidence of CHD were selected from each family history score group to participate in the study.