Effects of Urban Development and Climate on Water Demands and Curtailments

Water demand forecasts play a crucial role in management of municipal water resources. An accurate forecast indicates the quantity of water needed for the future; however, demand forecasting is an evolving art, and there is no single forecast method that is appropriate for all settings. Many forecasting methods have evolved to address demography, the economy, and social attitudes of a region. Methods for forecasting water demands have been evolving since the mid-1960s. Prior to that, water demand was modeled as a rudimentary function of the number of residential and industrial water users. Water demand models are useful as both descriptive and predictive tools. Utilities commonly develop water demand models to infer demand patterns and characteristics associated with their customer base. Understanding customer characteristics can provide valuable insight into consumer response to demand management techniques, such as changes in price or rate structures, implementation of water conservation programs, or response to drought curtailments. The ability to predict customer response to demand-side changes increases the tools available to water resources managers and decreases the uncertainty associated with making management decisions. As a predictive tool, forecasts provide municipalities estimates of short and long-term demands. Accurate forecasts help ensure that an appropriate amount of water supply is available when it is needed and that it will be provided reliably.;This research improves the understanding of some key factors that determine water consumption, and investigates how changes in climate and regional growth patterns influence residential water consumption. This research also investigates customer response to demand management techniques and quantifies the effectiveness of one common technique, water curtailments, among different customer groups. This dissertation provides engineers and planners methods for developing detailed and potentially more accurate forecasts of long-term water demands, as well as highlighting how the built environment and climate change influence residential water demands and curtailment effectiveness.